College Basketball Best Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Monday, February 27th

February 27, 2023 10:52 AM

College basketball schedule today has 19 games

Conference tournaments begin today with the A-Sun Tourney tipping off in Charlotte and Jacksonville at 7 p.m. ET. I previewed the Atlantic Sun Tournament and we’ll have previews of several other conference tourneys over the next two weeks from myself and new writer Zachary Cohen.

We also have the remaining regular season games in a lot of other conferences this week, so I’ll keep up with the daily article and props to Zach for jumping in to do a Sunday one for us. (Tracking sheet - just my picks Monday-Saturday)

I’ll be on a new edition of the VSiN College Basketball Betting Podcast this evening, so look for that link later tonight or early tomorrow.

Here are some thoughts on the February 27 card (odds from DraftKings):

North Carolina Tar Heels (-8, 151.5) at Florida State Seminoles

Slim pickings on Monday to say the least, but Florida State getting an eight-point head start was intriguing enough to make the cut to start the week. The Seminoles force teams into a lot of 3-point attempts with a 3P Rate against of 39.7%. North Carolina is far and away the worst 3P% team in the ACC at 30.4%. The Tar Heels don’t force turnovers, so they’ll need to make a good percentage of those long-distance shots to cover nearly double digits in this one.

Florida State is still fighting, as evidenced by a really nice comeback win over Miami over the weekend. Sure, a letdown is a possibility, but this will be the last home game for the season in Tallahassee and the Seminoles haven’t won there since Jan. 7, so I’d call that some incentive to play well.

North Carolina’s shot share on Close Twos is only 33.2%, which ranks 267th. Florida State’s is only 0.1% higher, but they’re getting the eight points to start the game. If UNC has an out-of-body experience from 3, so be it, but Florida State is going to push them away from the basket and force a team shooting 29.3% from 3 in ACC play and 26.4% in road ACC play to make shots.

Pick: Florida State +8