College basketball schedule today has 36 games
I got a very late start to today’s college basketball card doing a guest spot on A Numbers Game with Gill Alexander and then hosting the VSiN Saturday Betting Hour, which my Ohio friends can hear broadcast across the state on Saturday mornings. We’ve got a good bit of conference tournament action tonight across a variety of conferences. (Tracking sheet)
I’ve ignored almost all of the afternoon games with the late posting of today’s piece, so the options were pretty limited cutting out roughly a third of the card right off the bat, but that’s how it goes at this time of the year.
Here are some thoughts on the March 10 card (odds from DraftKings):
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Texas A&M Aggies (-1, 137.5)
The third of four games at Bridgestone Arena (7 p.m. ET) features Arkansas and Texas A&M in a rubber match after the teams split the two regular season meetings. Arkansas won 81-70 at home and Texas A&M won 62-56 at home. There was one main constant between the two games that makes me like the short favorite Aggies in this one.
Texas A&M got to the rim. Now, the Aggies had some bad luck when they got there, as they were just 35-of-106 on 2-point shots in the first two meetings, but that’s such a big outlier given the quality of the shots they took. Arkansas is a really good 2P% defense at 46.8%, but the Aggies were a combined 27-of-67 on shot attempts at the rim in those two games. For the season, the Aggies are converting at a 57.9% rate and Arkansas is allowing a 55.1% FG% on Close Twos. While that’s one of the better numbers in the nation, it certainly isn’t 40.3% good, which is what they have allowed in the two games.
The other thing I like here is that Texas A&M should force Arkansas into long shots. The Aggies have a 3P Rate against of 46%. Arkansas only shoots a 3 on 28% of shot attempts and is only a 32% team on those shots. In the two games, Arkansas has 38 attempts on Close Twos and 34 attempts from 3. That isn’t the shot distribution that they want to have.
Arkansas was 3-of-11 from 3 against Auburn yesterday and most of the teams to play thus far have shot poorly in big Bridgestone Arena. I think the quality of Texas A&M’s shot attempts and their ability to force the Razorbacks away from the basket will lead to victory tonight.
Pick: Texas A&M -1
