College basketball schedule today has 15 games
I’ll open this article much the same as I opened last Friday’s, as this card is the calm before the storm. We’ve got 15 games on the Friday night board with a lot of MAAC and Ivy League in advance of a whopper tomorrow with 10 times the amount of games. That will be a long handicap. But, that’s tomorrow’s problem. Here is the tracking sheet.
As mentioned yesterday, it is the NHL All-Star Break, so Andy MacNeil took a look at the Central Division, but Jonathan Von Tobel shared his NBA best bets and takes on the eight-game card in the Association. Check out all of our Super Bowl coverage as well.
Here are some thoughts on the February 3 card (odds from DraftKings):
Don’t these team names just remind you of Legends of the Hidden Temple? Bonus points if you get that reference. Anyways, we’ve got a rivalry game here in Buffalo between Canisius and Niagara and one where I like the host squad. The Golden Griffins have had an out-of-body experience from 3 over the last two games, shooting 22-of-57 (38.6%) and still lost to Quinnipiac and Manhattan, who is one of the worst teams in the MAAC.
That isn’t the only reason, but their 3-point shooting has a good chance at coming back to earth against a Niagara team that actively runs opponents off the 3-point line. Head coach Greg Paulus has made that a point of emphasis, as Niagara’s 3P Rate against of 28.1% is the sixth-lowest in the country. For a Canisius team that chucks 3s at a 41.4% rate, they may have to change their offensive style here.
Niagara shouldn’t have to at all. Canisius has allowed a 45.4% shot share on Close Twos as defined by Bart Torvik. That is the second-highest rate in the country. That means teams are getting a lot of high-percentage opportunities at the basket. Niagara is 132nd in shot share on Close Twos, but 289th in FG%, so I think there’s some positive regression to be had.
The Purple Eagles force teams into a lot of mid-range jumpers, which are typically low-percentage shots, and Canisius is shooting just 34.9% on those. Canisius rarely gets to the rim, settling for a lot of 3s. Teams have also made a lot of 3s against them, but they have limited opponents to a low rate of 3s at 30.6%. When Niagara takes them, they should have a better chance at making them than Canisius and will get more looks at the rim.
Put it all together and I think the Purple Eagles are the side here.
Pick: Niagara -4
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