Wednesday NIT Sharp Report

March 22, 2023 12:28 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Wednesday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the VSiN Betting Splits for every game. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Wednesday's NIT quarterfinals doubleheader...


7 p.m. ET: UAB at Vanderbilt (PK, 153)

UAB (27-9) has covered both games in the NIT thus far, beating Southern Miss 88-60 as 8.5-point favorites in the first round and then crushing Morehead State 77-59 as 14.5-point favorites in the second round. On the flip side, Vanderbilt (22-14) took down Yale 71-62 in the first round, covering as 3.5-point favorites, and then edged Michigan 66-65 in the second round but failed to cover as 3-point favorites. This line opened with Vanderbilt listed as a 2-point home favorite. The public is laying the points with the Commodores. However, despite receiving 66% of bets we've seen Vanderbilt fall from -2 down to a pick'em. This signals sharp reverse line movement on UAB, with pros backing the road Blazers. Ken Pom has Vanderbilt winning by one point (80-79). However, he has UAB ranked much higher (49th vs 80th). Both teams are allowing roughly 71 PPG defensively. The difference comes on offense, where UAB is averaging 81 PPG compared to 72 PPG for Vanderbilt. UAB has the better field goal percentage (46% vs 43%) and the better rebounding (38 RPG vs 33 RPG). The total hasn't budged off the opener of 153. Both teams are "over" teams, with UAB 22-12-1 to the over and Vanderbilt 20-16 to the over. 


9 p.m. ET: Cincinnati at Utah Valley (PK, 148.5)

Cincinnati (23-12) beat Virginia Tech 81-72 in round one, covering as 5-point favorites, and then beat Hofstra 79-65 in round two, cruising as 1-point favorites. On the other hand, Utah Valley (27-8) took down New Mexico 83-69 in the opening round, winning outright as 5.5-point dogs and then upset Colorado 81-69 in the second round, winning outright as 4.5-point dogs. This line opened at a pick'em and we haven't seen much movement either way. However, a few shops opened with Cincinnati listed as a short 1-point favorite and quickly moved down to a pick'em. This indicates some respected money on the home team. Utah Valley is only receiving 22% of bets but 54% of money, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Ken Pom has Utah Valley winning by two points (76-74). Utah Valley has the superior field goal percentage (47% vs 45%), better rebounding (37 RPG vs 34 RPG) and better free throw shooting (74% vs 70%). Sharps have also hit the under, steaming the total down from 151 to 148.5. Cincinnati is 4-0 to the under their last four games. 

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