Circa Million Week 8 Lines, Picks & Consensus

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

October 30, 2021 05:40 PM
circa_million

Another week’s worth of agonizing decisions is over for the contestants in the Circa Million III and now they’ll all wait to see how the weekend plays out. The second quarter in this year’s contest features five weeks, so Week 8 is not the end of the prize period like it was last season because of the inaugural season for Week 17.

That means that there will be no prizes handed out after Giants vs. Chiefs on Monday Night Football, but this week’s picks are extremely important all the same. Once this week’s selections are graded, it will mean that 40 of the 90 picks have been calculated, so we are just about at the midpoint of the 2021 season.

Hannibal Barca has a 1.5-point lead over Old School HustlersA and OTBNCC with a record of 29-6. With a full point for a win, a half-point for a push and zero points for a loss, the tie for second place comes with a record of 27-7-1. There is an eight-way tie for fourth place with 27 points. Three entries have 26.5 points and a 16-way tie for 15th with 26 points.

Two of the entries tied for fourth belong to Hannibal Barca, so it has been a strong season so far through 35 picks.

Azzurri99 is the leader for the quarter prize with a record of 14-1 and 14 points. Survive This and St-Roc are tied for second with 13.5 points. Six entries have 13 points and a bunch of either 12.5 or 12 points through three weeks in the second quarter.

The quarter prize is $171,750 for first, $50,000 for second, $25,000 for third and then $25,000 for the “Booby Prize” given to the last-place finisher to make all the picks. There is a four-way tie for the Booby Prize right now with two points.

Here is a quick recap of Week 7:

  • Top-five consensus picks (five most popular sides) went 4-1 (Colts, Bengals, Eagles, Patriots, Titans)
  • Consensus picks (most popular pick in each game) went 6-7
  • Week 7 record was 10,927-9,208 (54.3 percent)

 

For the year-to-date:

  • Top-five consensus picks are 23-12
  • Consensus picks are 60-46-1
  • Overall record is 74,807-65,267-1891 (53.4 percent)

The consensus came in under .500 in Week 7, but four of the five most popular sides hit, so it was a big week for the field. Sportsbooks have lamented how badly their results have gone in recent weeks and we’ve seen a lot of success in this contest, as those two things go hand-in-hand.

The Circa field has only had one losing week (Week 5), so let’s see if that trend continues with this week’s odds and pick counts.

Here are the Week 8 Circa Million lines and pick counts (* denotes home):

1 Cardinals* 163

2 Packers (+ 6.5) 237

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3 Bills* 806

4 Dolphins (+ 14) 319

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5 Falcons* 631

6 Panthers (+ 3) 550

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7 Eagles 337

8 Lions* (+ 3.5) 1184 (consensus #3)

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9 Colts* 1155 (consensus #4)

10 Titans (+ 2.5) 920

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11 Rams 753

12 Texans (+ 14.5) 200

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13 Bengals 1219 (consensus #2)

14 Jets* (+ 10.5) 323

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15 Browns* 669

16 Steelers (+ 3.5) 736

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17 49ers 514

18 Bears* (+ 4) 445

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19 Seahawks* 826

20 Jaguars (+ 3) 429

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21 Chargers* 796

22 Patriots (+ 5) 1017 (consensus #5)

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23 Broncos* 574

24 Washington (+ 3) 359

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25 Buccaneers 852

26 Saints (+ 5) 1013

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27 Cowboys 559

28 Vikings* (+ 1.5) 1661 (consensus #1)

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29 Chiefs* 533

30 Giants (+ 9.5) 315

The top-five consensus is the Minnesota Vikings, Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions, Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots.

The Vikings were a very popular pick with a lot of line value as news broke after contest lines were posted that Dak Prescott may not be able to play. With Minnesota at -3 in the markets at the time of the deadline for Circa picks, the stale line proved to be an attractive angle for a lot of contestants.

Check back each week with a Saturday preview of the Circa Million III to keep up with the pick counts, consensus, standings and more.

Over in the Circa Survivor, there are still 2,131 entries left standing from the 4,080 that started in search of the $6 million top prize. The field lost 93 entries last week, 66 of them as a result of the Ravens losing to the Bengals.

We haven’t had an upset larger than a + 7 so far this season, so we haven’t had a big favorite go down to thin the herd. That being said, the field has still been almost cut in half from where it started.

There are several big favorites on the board this week, so the top Survivor picks were quite obvious again. The Bengals were the most popular team with 871. The Chiefs were next with 734, as a lot of brave souls are backing the big Monday Night Favorite. The Rams (208), Bills (206) and Chargers (38) rounded out the five most popular picks.

We've already had 13 entries eliminated, as seven failed to make a pick and six had the Cardinals on Thursday night.

We’ll see how it all goes in Week 8. Dave Tuley will have contest updates in his Tuley’s Takes column on Monday and also Tuesday, so keep an eye out for those.

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