Circa Million Week 7 Lines, Picks & Consensus

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

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Another round of tough decisions has been made by the contestants in the Circa Sports Million III. Picks 31 through 35 will go into the record books in Week 7, which is also the third week of the second quarter. The second quarter is one of two that will run five weeks, so the next 15 selections for each entry will determine to next round of quarter prizes.

Hannibal Barca is the leader with 26 points and a record of 26-4. Contestants get a full point for a win, a half-point for a push and zero points for a loss. Mr. Wiggles and Gambler and a Giver are tied for second with 25 points. There is a five-way tie for fourth place with 24 points and Hannibal Barca’s other two entries are among that group. A seven-way tie for ninth rounds out the top 10 with 23.5 points.

Three entries are a perfect 10-0 in the second quarter, as Silverback, Gambler and a Giver and Punters Delight have turned in spotless cards in Weeks 5 and 6. There are five entries that are 9-0-1 in the second quarter. The first-place prize for a quarter for $171,750, with $50,000 for second, $25,000 for third and a $25,000 “Booby Prize” for the lowest point total from an entry that makes all of the required picks. So far, there are two entries at 0-10 and five at 0-9-1.

The quarter prizes are great because they keep everybody engaged throughout the season, even if the hopes and dreams of cashing a full-season prize have mostly gone by the wayside. Ground is very difficult to make up in a contest where 4,087 entries paid $1,000 each to participate.

First place for the full season is worth $1 million. Those that finish second through 50th will get a piece of the $1.9 million in cash prizes left over after the quarter prizes have been doled out and $100,000 has been given to the lowest point total over all 85 selections.

Here is a quick recap of Week 6:

  • Top-five consensus picks (five most popular sides) went 4-1 (Browns, Packers, Cowboys, Chiefs, Vikings)
  • Consensus picks (most popular pick in each game) went 6-8
  • Week 6 record was 10,812-9388 (53.5 percent)

For the year-to-date:

  • Top-five consensus picks are 19-11
  • Consensus picks are 54-39-1
  • Overall record is 63,880-55,879-1891 (53.3 percent)

It is really interesting to see the consensus go 6-8, but the field do better than 53 percent. It all depends on the games with big pick spreads. For example, the Packers and Chiefs won as consensus picks and Green Bay was taken 1,087 more times than Chicago. KC was picked 990 more times than Washington. Additional situations like that were enough to outweigh the Browns, who were taken 1,695 times, 1,116 more times than the Cardinals.

The Circa field has only had one losing week to this point (Week 5). Let’s see if that trend continues this week.

Here are the Week 7 Circa Million lines and pick counts (* denotes home):

1 Browns* 157

2 Broncos (+ 1.5) 171

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3 Ravens* 665

4 Bengals (+ 6.5) 1422 (consensus #2)

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5 Panthers 1077

6 Giants* (+ 3) 481

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7 Packers* 1065

8 Washington (+ 8) 530

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9 Chiefs 873

10 Titans* (+ 4.5) 1104 (consensus #5)

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11 Falcons 824

12 Dolphins* (+ 2.5) 791

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13 Patriots* 1178 (consensus #4)

14 Jets (+ 7) 479

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15 Rams* 605

16 Lions (+ 15) 428

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17 Raiders* 930

18 Eagles (+ 3) 1255 (consensus #3)

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19 Bucs* 599

20 Bears (+ 12.5) 724

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21 Cardinals* 328

22 Texans (+ 18.5) 733

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23 49ers* 690

24 Colts (+ 4) 1447 (consensus #1)

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25 Saints 582

26 Seahawks* (+ 5) 997

The top-five consensus is the Indianapolis Colts, Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia Eagles, New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans.

Check back each week with a Saturday preview of the Circa Million III to keep up with the pick counts, consensus, standings and more.

Over in the Circa Survivor, we entered the week with 2,224 of the 4,080 that we started with and a guaranteed $6 million prize pool is out there for the taking. It will likely take a perfect 20-0 record with 18 weeks plus the Thanksgiving and Christmas weeks to take down the title and the cash.

Week 6 was a pretty tame one in the Circa Survivor. Only 44 entries were lost in Week 6 and 10 of those came from not putting in a pick. The Broncos lost for 19 entries by coming up short against the Raiders. Two brave souls took the Lions for some unknown reason. The Bills coming up two yards short on Monday Night Football lost for two entries.

From the looks of this week’s point spreads, we won’t be losing many Survivors this week either. There are three double-digit favorites on the board and the Bears, Cardinals and Buccaneers will be very popular. That being said, for those playing the long game, the Cardinals are the only team worth taking for the “Christmas Week”, so some entrants made the decision to hold back.

This week’s top Survivor picks are the Patriots with 656, Cardinals with 552, Rams with 386, Packers with 272 and Buccaneers with 232. The Dolphins, Browns and Giants all drew one pick apiece, while the Broncos and Chiefs were taken twice.

With two entries that failed to make a pick and two on the Broncos, we’ve lost four contestants with 12 games still to play.

We’ll see how it all goes in Week 7. Dave Tuley will have contest updates in his Tuley’s Takes column on Monday and also Tuesday, so keep an eye out for those.

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