Circa Million Week 5 Lines, Picks & Consensus

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

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For those that are off to a nice start in the Circa Million III, the hope is for business as usual in Week 5. For those that are not, Week 5 represents a new beginning.

That is because the second quarter gets underway with this round of games, as contestants will vie for the $171,750 top prize over the next five weeks. The highest point total over the next 25 picks will take down the six-figure sum. Second place is good for $50,000, while third place is good for $25,000.

We had a five-way tie at the top for the first quarter, so all five entries split the total sum of $246,750 for a pay day of $49,350. This is the first of two quarters that will go five weeks in length thanks to the 18th week added to the 2021 NFL schedule.

That five-way tie at the top is with a record of 18-2 for Almost Covered, DeadMoneyMedia.com, 818Madden20Survivors, Stoney and Mr. Wiggles. There is a 19-way tie for sixth place with 17 points.

Peter Pipers Picks and Sausagefest split the $25,000 “Booby Prize” for the lowest point total to make all 20 picks. Those two entries are 3-17 to start the season.

Fortunately, for those that are not doing well, the quarter prizes give everybody the chance to win something. While the full-season record does not change, everybody’s quarter record goes back to 0-0 for Week 5. It will be the same in Week 10 and Week 14.

The prize pool started at $4,087,000 and now sits at $3,815,250 with the first round of prizes paid out.

The rules remain the same throughout the entire season, as contestants pick five games against the spread from lines that come out on Thursday morning. With a new lease on life for everybody in the field, it will be interesting to see how Week 5 plays out as picks 21 through 25 go into the record books.

Here is a quick recap of Week 4:

  • Top-five consensus picks (five most popular sides) went 3-2 (Bucs, Seahawks, Ravens, Vikings, Chargers)
  • Consensus picks (most popular pick in each game) went 10-6
  • Week 4 record was 11,008-9,242 (54.4 percent)

For the year-to-date:

  • Top-five consensus picks are 12-8
  • Consensus picks are 40-24
  • Overall record is 44,089-37,096 (54.3 percent)

The field is really off to an outstanding start, but there will be a week sooner rather than later where things don’t really go as planned for the majority of the contestants.

Let’s see if it will be this week.

Here are the Week 5 Circa Million lines and pick counts (* denotes home):

1 Rams 319

2 Seahawks* (+ 2.5) 132

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3 Falcons 277

4 Jets (+ 3) 886

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5 Bucs* 337

6 Dolphins (+  10) 537

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7 Panthers* 1158 (consensus #1)

8 Eagles (+ 3) 389

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9 Saints 885

10 Washington* (+ 2.5) 404

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11 Titans 1065 (consensus #3)

12 Jaguars* (+ 4.5) 293

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13 Vikings* 552

14 Lions (+ 9.5) 352

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15 Broncos 564

16 Steelers* (PK) 707

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17 Packers 913

18 Bengals* (+ 3) 978

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19 Patriots 365

20 Texans (+ 8.5) 401

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21 Raiders* 655

22 Bears (+ 5.5) 456

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23 Chargers* 1024 (consensus #4)

24 Browns (+ 2) 689

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25 Cowboys* 625

26 Giants (+ 7) 575

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27 Cardinals* 710

28 49ers (+ 5.5) 1119 (consensus #2)

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29 Chiefs* 887

30 Bills (+ 2.5) 1012 (consensus #5)

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31 Ravens* 579

32 Colts (+ 7) 420

The top-five consensus is the Carolina Panthers, San Francisco 49ers, Tennessee Titans, Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills.

Check back each week with a Saturday preview of the Circa Million III to keep up with the pick counts, consensus, standings and more.

We’re also keeping a close eye on the Circa Survivor on a weekly basis. The contest started with 4,080 people and is down to 2,333 after four weeks. Some have picked a losing team and others have failed to send in a pick. There were actually 19 entries last week that didn’t send in a selection.

This is a winner-take-all prize pool of $6 million, but Thanksgiving and the Christmas “Week” are little wrinkles that will likely force somebody to have to go 20-0 to win. The Christmas “Week” is in Week 16 and includes the Thursday game between the 49ers and Titans and the two Christmas games, with Browns vs. Packers and Colts vs. Cardinals.

You can read about Adam Burke’s Survivor suggestions in this week’s article right here.

As far as how the field played it, the most popular pick this week was the Minnesota Vikings with 1,343 selections. The New England Patriots likely would have garnered more support without the offensive line injuries, but were still picked 443 times. The other most popular picks were the Ravens with 253 and the Buccaneers with 157 picks.

We’ll see how it all goes in Week 5. Dave Tuley will have contest updates in his Tuley’s Takes column on Monday and also Tuesday, so keep an eye out for those.

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