Circa Million Week 17 Lines, Picks & Consensus

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

January 1, 2022 06:05 PM
circa_million

Week 17 used to be the finish line in the Circa football contests, but it no longer is. There are 10 picks left to make in the Circa Sports Million and two picks left in the Circa Survivor. Those in position to cash probably wish that this was the end of the regular season. Those that are trying to make up ground are happy to have one additional week.

A lot of money is at stake over the next two weeks in both contests, especially the Circa Survivor, so let’s start with a look at that one.

Circa Survivor

There are five entries left playing for the $6 million top prize. We discussed it in the lead-up to the season, but there was a significant overlay in this contest. The guaranteed $6 million prize wound up being a lofty goal, as only 4,080 entrants put up the $1,000 to get into the field. That left $4.08 in the prize pool in entry fees and Circa’s guarantee meant that there was $1.92 of “free” money in the pot.

There is another wrinkle that has some relevance this week. The Buccaneers are a huge favorite against the Jets and look like a no-brainer for the surviving entry that still has Tampa Bay available. However, if the winning entry uses the Bucs or the Chiefs in Week 18, there is a $1 million bonus prize. Two entries have the Chiefs left on the board.

Chris Piper-1, MyCool-1 (has KC left), On Top 247-2 (has KC left), Return of Survivor-5 (has T left) and Syracuse Hawkeyes-1 are the five surviving entries.

Here are the picks:

Chris Piper – Chargers

MyCool – 49ers

On Top 247 – Saints

Return of Survivor – Seahawks

Syracuse Hawkeyes – 49ers

It isn’t nearly as cut and dry as offering to chop up the pot, as there are a lot of tax considerations in play, along with the possibility for an extra $1 million and all of the entries are in different situations, some with better teams than others. With that in mind, we’ll just focus on this week and next week and seeing how the winners shake out.

Circa Million

Only 10 picks remain in the Circa Million. The first-place prize of $1 million is the ultimate goal, but the $171,750 for winning the fourth quarter is not a bad pay day either. The top-50 plus ties get paid for the full season. The top three get paid for the fourth quarter. There is also a booby prize for last place for the full season and last place in the fourth quarter.

In other words, a lot of prize money is on the line this week and next for the contestants in the field. There are a ton of moving parts and these picks are the most important ones of the year over the final two weeks.

Hannibal Barca-1 still leads, but the lead was cut to one point last week with a record of 57-23 and 57 points. However, Hannibal Barca-2 is one of three entries tied for second with 56 points. Durbify-1 is one of those and the Durbify-2 entry is among three entries tied for fifth with 55 points. There is a three-way tie for eighth and the same for 11th.

Here are the top 10 in visual form:

top10_after_16

As mentioned, first place is a cool million, but the top seven places all get at least six figures. There are sure to be a lot of ties and splits of prize spots and a lot of gory math to figure out which entries win what when the dust settles.

The full-season Booby Prize race is led by Jiggy Jack with a record of 23-57. It is crazy that 57-23 leads the charge and 23-57 is the worst record in the field. Unlike Barca’s small lead, however, Jiggy Jack is up three points on the closest competitor.

Grind2021-1 leads the fourth quarter with a perfect 15-0 record. There are four entries tied at 14-1. The fourth quarter booby prize leader is Tlinky-1 with a record of 1-14.

Here is a look at how the field has done to this point:

stats_overall_17

Here are the Week 17 lines, pick counts and consensus (*denotes home):

1 Colts* 761

2 Raiders (+ 6.5) 505

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3 Bears* 337

4 Giants (+ 6) 317

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5 Bucs 575

6 Jets* (+ 12.5) 244

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7 Bills* 533

8 Falcons (+ 14) 282

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9 Cowboys* 551

10 Cardinals (+ 6) 963 (consensus #4)

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11 Saints* 273

12 Panthers (+ 7) 379

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13 Eagles 854

14 Washington* (+ 3.5) 429

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15 Chiefs 598

16 Bengals (+ 5) 874

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17 Patriots* 362

18 Jaguars (+ 16.5) 245

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19 Titans* 1044 (consensus #3)

20 Dolphins (+ 3) 507

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21 Chargers* 752

22 Broncos (+ 6.5) 283

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23 49ers* 300

24 Texans (+ 12.5) 476

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25 Seahawks* 296

26 Lions (+ 7) 480

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27 Rams 1339 (consensus #2)

28 Ravens* (+ 3.5) 341

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29 Packers* 1921 (consensus #1)

30 Vikings (+ 7) 345

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31 Browns 322

32 Steelers* (+ 3.5) 887 (consensus #5)

The top-five consensus is the Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, Tennessee Titans, Arizona Cardinals and Pittsburgh Steelers.

The rest of the consensus:

circa_consensus_(5)

We’ll see how it all goes in Week 17. Dave Tuley will have contest updates in his Tuley’s Takes column on Monday and also Tuesday, so keep an eye out for those.

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