Circa Million Week 13 Lines, Picks & Consensus

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

December 4, 2021 06:00 PM
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Some big cash prizes will be handed out at the conclusion of the Week 13 games in the Circa Sports Million III. This is the final week of the third quarter and that means another $271,750 will come out of the prize pool for the top three scores and the lowest score over the four-week span that began in Week 10.

We'll start, however, with the drama in the Circa Survivor in the quest for $6 million.

Circa Survivor

Perhaps I should have led with the Circa Survivor, but it is a big week in the Million with the third quarter coming to a close. The drama has reached a heightened level in the Survivor, as there are only 28 entries left standing going into this weekend’s action.

The Circa Sports website has a Team Availability Matrix posted, which is something that all of the entries should be looking at each week. Nobody in the field had Dallas left, so nobody used the Cowboys on Thursday. The only other teams completely unavailable are the Bills and Rams. The Browns, Colts and Patriots were all available to one entry apiece coming into this week.

With 28 entries left, the pick counts for Week 13 are as follows:

Eagles 10

Vikings 5

Chiefs 4

Dolphins 3

Buccaneers 3

Cardinals 2

Colts 1

Author's note: Jalen Hurts was announced out just three minutes before the Survivor deadline. This marks the second time in four weeks that the top Survivor pick has been affected by the loss of a starting QB. It happened with the Steelers vs. the Lions back in Week 10. That tie knocked out 248 of the 499 contestants.

Circa Million III

There are a lot of possibilities with what appears to be a tough NFL card this weekend. ThrowinDarts3 is the leader with a record of 14-1 over the last three weeks, but the lead is anything but safe, as there are 14 entrants tied for second with records of 13-2. There are 53 entrants with 12-3 records. First place gets $171,750, with $50,000 for second and $25,000 for third.

The “Booby Prize” is also up for grabs, which is a $25,000 check for the entry that makes all 20 picks and gets the fewest correct. The leader in that department right now is Trading Laces at 1-14. There are 14 entries at 2-13.

These quarter prizes are a huge deal and there is one quarter left to go that will encompass Weeks 14 through 18 to finish out the regular season. The top prize is worth almost as much prize money as fifth place for the full season, while finishing second in a quarter is equivalent to finishing 12th for the full season.

Speaking of the full season, JJarvis117 still leads the field with 43 points and has a 1.5-point edge over Berta, Calabasas Wine Guy and FJ1925. Those three entries are just a half-point ahead of 10 entries tied for fifth with 41 points. There are six entries tied for 15th with 40.5 points. The top 50 plus ties get paid, along with $100,000 to the last-place finisher to make all 90 picks. Jiggy Jack and BobbyRams lead that race with a record of 19-41.

A quick recap of Week 12:

  • The top-five consensus (five most popular picks) was 1-4 (Steelers, Rams, Colts, Patriots, Eagles)
  • The consensus (most popular side in each game) was 7-8
  • The overall record was 9293-10,422 (47.1 percent)

 

For the year-to-date:

  • The top-five consensus is 33-27
  • The consensus is 99-82-1
  • Overall record is 123,686-116,073-1891 (51.6 percent)

Last week was the worst of the season thus far for the field at just over 47 percent. There have been a lot of weeks this season in which one of the top two consensus picks went down, but the top three went down last week, accounting for 3,249 of the 10,422 losses. There is no vig in a contest like this, so we don’t have to worry about a break-even percentage of 52.38 percent at -110, but the 51.6 percent success rate is pretty indicative of where large groups of handicappers would ultimately end up.

Here are the lines, pick counts and consensus for Week 13 (* denotes home):

1 Cowboys 183

2 Saints* (+ 6.5) 133

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3 Vikings 760

4 Lions* (+ 7) 467

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5 Cardinals 585

6 Bears* (+ 7.5) 519

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7 Bucs 404

8 Falcons* (+ 11.5) 740

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9 Chiefs* 457

10 Broncos (+ 9.5) 1202 (consensus #3)

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11 Colts 742

12 Texans* (+ 10) 430

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13 Eagles 617

14 Jets* (+ 7) 614

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15 Bengals* 953 (consensus #5)

16 Chargers (+ 3) 951

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17 Dolphins* 1581 (consensus #1)

18 Giants (+ 4) 368

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19 Raiders* 795

20 Washington (+ 2.5) 963 (consensus #4)

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21 Ravens 538

22 Steelers* (+ 4.5) 860

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23 Rams* 714

24 Jaguars (+ 13) 291

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25 49ers 866

26 Seahawks* (+ 3.5) 728

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27 Bills* 1232 (consensus #2)

28 Patriots (+ 2.5) 797

The top-five consensus is the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, Denver Broncos, Washington Football Team and Cincinnati Bengals.

This was a hard week for picking the consensus with so many road favorites on the board. The home favorites are not comfortable picks either, with teams like the Raiders and Bills laying short prices.

We’ll see how it all goes in Week 13. Dave Tuley will have contest updates in his Tuley’s Takes column on Monday and also Tuesday, so keep an eye out for those.

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