Circa Million Week 11 Lines, Picks & Consensus

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

November 20, 2021 05:55 PM
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These next few weeks are some of the most important in the Circa Sports Million III. The Thanksgiving week is always a big challenge and the lines are very tight now that we have a lot of data points for the teams. As we’ve seen recently, favorites have struggled, as performing at the highest level week in and week out is difficult. Contestants have to navigate some choppy waters as a result.

Also, you don’t realize how quickly you can run out of time in a contest like this. Picks 51 through 55 out of the 90 maximum selections will go in the record books this weekend and that means that time to gain ground is dwindling. Those that have been treading water really need to start making a move.

At least the quarter prizes keep everybody invested throughout most of the season and also give those that got off to a rough start a new lease on life. This is the second week of the third quarter, one of two quarters that lasts four weeks in length. There were 155 entries that went 5-0 to start this quarter.

The overall leaders are JJarvis117 and Price Check with 38 points and identical records of 38-12. That is good enough for a 1.5-point lead over DawgDay Afternoon, FJ1925, OTBNCC and TheWagerLock. There are six entries tied for seventh and three entries tied for 13th.

A quick recap of Week 10:

  • Top-five consensus picks (five most popular sides) went 2-3 (Titans, Rams, Browns, Packers, Saints, Eagles (tie for #5 – counting as one win)
  • Consensus picks (most popular side in each game) went 6-8
  • Week 10 record was 9900-10015 (49.7 percent)

 

For the year-to-date:

  • Top-five consensus picks are 29-21
  • Consensus picks are 83-68-1
  • Overall record is 104,222-95,892-1891 (52.1 percent)

The third losing week of the season came last week, as the three most popular sides on the board came up short. We did have the Titans and the Saints both in the top-five consensus, which has now happened twice this season with both sides of a game. It maybe happens once per season on average, but this season has been a little bit crazy, as we all know.

Here are the Week 11 Circa Million lines and pick counts (* denotes home):

1 Patriots 183

2 Falcons* (+ 6.5) 185

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3 Browns* 734

4 Lions (+ 11) 324

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5 49ers 652

6 Jaguars* (+ 6.5) 519

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7 Bills* 500

8 Colts (+ 7) 1155 (consensus #1)

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9 Dolphins 1076 (consensus #4)

10 Jets* (+ 3) 347

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11 Panthers* 639

12 Washington (+ 3.5) 824

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13 Ravens 1107 (consensus #3)

14 Bears* (+ 4.5) 346

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15 Eagles* 820

16 Saints (+ 1.5) 755

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17 Titans* 489

18 Texans (+ 10) 693

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19 Packers 920

20 Vikings* (+ 1.5) 1128 (consensus #2)

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21 Bengals 848

22 Raiders* (+ 1) 439

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23 Cardinals 406

24 Seahawks* (+ 2) 1050 (consensus #5)

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25 Chiefs* 704

26 Cowboys (+ 2.5) 1033

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27 Chargers* 486

28 Steelers (+ 6.5) 680

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29 Bucs* 332

30 Giants (+ 11) 556

The top-five consensus is the Indianapolis Colts, Minnesota Vikings, Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins and Seattle Seahawks.

Check back each week with a Saturday preview of the Circa Million III to keep up with the pick counts, consensus, standings and more.

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The Circa Survivor field is much, much smaller than it was last week. We went into the week with 686 contestants and are down to just 173. The Steelers and Ravens knocked out huge chunks of the field, as Ben Roethlisberger’s case of COVID hit the newswire after the picks were already entered. That knocked out 248 entries, while Baltimore knocked out 187.

The Cardinals and Bucs were also pretty big losses relative to the size of the field, with 40 eliminations and 31, respectively.

This week’s top picks are the Cleveland Browns with 88 selections and the Tennessee Titans with 38 selections. Over half of the field will be relying on the Browns.

With only 173 remaining entries, this is a big week because Thanksgiving is its own “week”, so all remaining entrants will have to pick one of the six teams on Thursday. Those that survive this week have a very tough road ahead.

We’ll see how it all goes in Week 11. Dave Tuley will have contest updates in his Tuley’s Takes column on Monday and also Tuesday, so keep an eye out for those.

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