Circa Million Week 10 Lines, Picks & Consensus

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

November 13, 2021 05:55 PM
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The NFL season is more than halfway over and the third quarter is underway in the Circa Sports Million III. Rolfsbudo7 took down the second quarter top prize of $171,750 and now all of the quarter records have been wiped clean to start another four-week sprint for big cash prizes.

The winner had a 21-3-1 record from Week 5 through Week 9 to secure the bag by a full point over KWPISG, who went 20-4-1 and took down $50,000. BuckeyeSportsGroup went 20-5 and won $25,000. King Dubb won the $25,000 Booby Prize by going 4-21 over the five-week race.

The third quarter starts this week and runs through Week 13. The same prize amounts are up for grabs and this is one of the most attractive elements of the Circa Million because it gives everybody a chance, even though that started out slowly.

In terms of the full-season standings, JJarvis 117 and Price Check are tied with identical 34-11 records. There is a four-way tie for third, a two-way tie for seventh and a seven-way tie for ninth to round out the top 10. The winner gets $1 million and the top 50 plus ties will finish in the money.

There are only 45 picks left to be made by each entry, so the time for gaining ground is dwindling. One wrinkle provided by the quarter prizes is that it isn’t as simple as trying to go anti-consensus or pick teams that won’t be popular just to try and get two-game swings in the full-season standings. There is a ton of equity in chasing down the quarter prizes, which are very lucrative. Only the top-five places for the full season pay more than first place for the quarter prize. Even second place for the quarter is worth as much as 12th place for the full season.

Picking winners remains the ultimate goal, but a lot of strategies come into play the deeper we go into the contest.

A quick recap of Week 9:

  • Top-five consensus picks (five most popular sides) went 3-2 (49ers, Chargers, Bengals, Patriots, Packers)
  • Consensus picks (most popular side in each game) went 6-8
  • Week 9 record was 10,035-9,995 (50.1 percent)

For the year-to-date:

  • Top-five consensus picks are 27-18
  • Consensus picks are 77-60-1
  • Overall record is 94,322-85,877-1891 (52.34 percent)

The field ever-so-slightly avoided a second straight losing week. There have only been two losing weeks to this point, but you notice that the field is at 52.34 percent. At standard -110 vig, the break-even point is 52.38 percent. There is no vig in this contest and all entry fees go to the prize pool, but it is fascinating to see a very large sample size of picks falling right around that success rate.

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Here are the Week 10 Circa Million lines and pick counts (* denotes home):

1 Ravens 309

2 Dolphins* (+ 7.5) 90

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3 Colts* 489

4 Jaguars (+ 10.5) 448

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5 Patriots* 873

6 Browns (+ 2.5) 1085 (consensus #3)

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7 Cowboys* 621

8 Falcons (+ 9) 874

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9 Bills 740

10 Jets* (+ 11.5) 438

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11 Titans* 1175 (consensus #1)

12 Saints (+ 3) 981 (tie consensus #5)

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13 Buccaneers 682

14 Washington* (+ 9.5) 480

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15 Steelers* 357

16 Lions (+ 8) 919

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17 Chargers* 937

18 Vikings (+ 3) 731

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19 Cardinals* 427

20 Panthers (+ 10) 551

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21 Packers* 995 (consensus #4)

22 Seahawks (+ 3) 531

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23 Broncos* 637

24 Eagles (+ 3) 981 (tie consensus #5)

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25 Chiefs 971

26 Raiders* (+ 2.5) 922

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27 Rams 1152 (consensus #2)

28 49ers* (+ 4) 519

The top-five consensus is the Tennessee Titans, Los Angeles Rams, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers and a tie between the New Orleans Saints and Philadelphia Eagles.

Check back each week with a Saturday preview of the Circa Million III to keep up with the pick counts, consensus, standings and more.

Over in the Circa Survivor, another big upset started off Week 10. The Baltimore Ravens went down to the Miami Dolphins on Thursday night, knocking out 187 of the remaining 686 contestants.

Over the last two weeks, the most popular pick (Bengals Week 8) and second-most popular pick (Bills Week 9) have lost. This week, the second-most popular pick has already lost. Tread carefully if you are still alive in the Circa Survivor or another Survivor contest.

This week, the top pick was the Pittsburgh Steelers with 248 selections, followed by the aforementioned Ravens, who came up short. The Colts and Cowboys were next with 65 and 60 selections, respectively.

The Steelers were announced as the top pick in the Survivor shortly after the 3 p.m. PT deadline and then Ben Roethlisberger was announced out with COVID. Pittsburgh is still favored by six points, but the line has gone down and the starting QB will be sidelined.

We’ll see how it all goes in Week 10. Dave Tuley will have contest updates in his Tuley’s Takes column on Monday and also Tuesday, so keep an eye out for those.

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