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Circa Million Week 1 Lines, Picks & Consensus

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

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The Circa Survivor wound up with a massive overlay, but the Circa Million III did not. A late rush of entries brought the total number up to 4,087, exceeding the $4 million guarantee with $4,087,000 in entry fees.

The rules are pretty simple. Five NFL picks against the spread must be made by each entry. The lines for the Circa Million come out on Thursday morning and do not move. Once they are out, contestants have until Saturday at 3 p.m. PT to submit their picks. Each win is worth a point and a tie is worth a half-point. Losses mean zero points.

This is the biggest field so far in the Circa Million. There were 1,875 in the inaugural season back in 2019 and 3,148 in 2020. Each contestant is allowed up to three entries, so there are not 4,087 different individuals in the field, but there are definitely a lot of people vying for the first-place blue blazer and the $1 million top prize.

The top 50 plus ties will win cash for their efforts over the full season. There are also quarterly prizes for the highest point totals from Weeks 1-4, 5-9, 10-13, and 14-18. The additional money in the prize pool from having more than 4,000 entries has been added to the first-place prizes for the quarters.

The top spot is the only one worth seven figures. Second place is worth $325,000, with $275,000 for third, $225,000 for fourth and $175,000 for fifth. Sixth and seventh-place finishers will also get six figures. The rest of the top 10 will be paid $90,000, $80,000, and $70,000, respectively. Ties will be split accordingly.

Places 11 through 15 get $60,000, $50,000, $40,000, $30,000 and $25,000, with a total of $230,000 split among finishers 16 through 50. The last place “Booby Prize” is $100,000 for the entry that makes all 90 picks, but finishes with the lowest point total.

The quarter prizes were originally listed at $150,000 for first, $50,000 for second, $25,000 for third and $25,000 for the last-place Booby Prize with the lowest point total to submit all picks. With an additional $87,000 in the prize pool, first place for the quarter will be worth $171,750. The other places remain the same.

Here are the Week 1 Circa Million lines and pick counts (* denotes home):

1 Bucs* 115

2 Cowboys ( 9) 124 WIN

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3 Bills* 499

4 Steelers ( 6.5) 867

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5 Panthers* 1175 (consensus #2)

6 Jets ( 3.5) 242

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7 Jaguars 273

8 Texans* ( 3.5) 774

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9 Titans* 708

10 Cardinals ( 3) 582

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11 Washington* 1405 (consensus #1)

12 Chargers ( 1) 369

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13 Falcons* 786

14 Eagles ( 3) 282

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15 Seahawks 776

16 Colts* ( 3) 552

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17 Vikings* 875

18 Bengals ( 3) 320

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19 49ers 1165 (consensus #3)

20 Lions* ( 7.5) 272

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21 Chiefs* 607

22 Browns ( 6) 851

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23 Patriots* 664

24 Dolphins ( 3.5) 698

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25 Broncos 854

26 Giants* ( 3) 387

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27 Rams* 939

28 Bears ( 7.5)186

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29 Packers 1022 (consensus #5)

30 Saints* ( 4) 572

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31 Ravens 3436

32 Raiders* ( 4) 1043 (consensus (#4)

The top-five consensus is the Washington Football Team, Carolina Panthers, San Francisco 49ers, Las Vegas Raiders and Green Bay Packers.

We’ll be tracking the progress of the field and also keep an eye on the top-five consensus picks each week. As the contest gets going, the intro will be more focused on strategy and less about the basics and the rules, but we’ll be keeping an eye on the Circa Million III all season long right here at VSiN.

In the Circa Survivor, a couple of California teams were the top choices. The Los Angeles Rams were taken by 1,287 of the 4,080 entrants (31.5%). The San Francisco 49ers were the next most popular team with 935 selections (22.9%). The Carolina Panthers were a distant third with 578 and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are already a winner in the books for 471 entries. No other team was taken more than 179 times.

The Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals and Bears were only taken once and the Chargers, Eagles, Giants, Saints and Jets were taken twice.

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