When the Top 5 Most-Selected Teams in Circa Sports Million are released after the 4 p.m. PT submission deadline each Saturday, it’s usually not a surprise as they usually include the point spreads that have moved the most during the week.
That was especially true this Saturday with the Lions + 7 at the Cowboys, Jaguars -3 vs. the Giants, Buccaneers -11 at the Panthers, 49ers + 2.5 vs. the Chiefs and Jets + 1 at the Broncos.
On Saturday, when most of the 4,691 CSM entrants were submitting their plays or sending to their proxies, the Lions’ line was down to 6.5 (moving off the key number of 7), the Jaguars were -3 (OK, so that is this week’s exception to the rule), the Buccaneers had moved to -13 (after the Panthers traded Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers), the 49ers were + 1 (after acquiring McCaffrey) and the Jets had flipped to favoritism at -1 (after Denver QB Russell Wilson was ruled out).
For those who don’t know, Circa posts its contest lines at 10 a.m. PT on Thursdays and the lines are “static,” meaning they stay the same no matter what happens in the real world or in the betting markets.
Taking so-called “stale” numbers like these is part of the reason the Top 5 plays are doing better than usual this season at 18-11-1 (62.1%). But these types of plays don’t always win, so we’ll see how they fare this week and the rest of the season.
In Circa Survivor, there were just 382 out of the original 6,133 entrants live entering NFL Week 7. Two didn’t get their pick submitted, so the field is down to 380 heading into Sunday (technically, those entries would still be alive if everyone else lost on the weekend and they all had to split the $6.133 million pot, but they’re eliminated because 2 entries used the Cardinals on Thursday Night Football and have already advanced to Week 8).
The Patriots were the No. 1 selected team of the remaining players as 175 used them on Monday Night Football vs. the Bears. They were followed by 84 using the Raiders vs. the Texans, 70 using the Buccaneers vs. the Panthers (would have probably been No, 1 except that a lot of entrants had already used the Bucs), 27 using the Dolphins vs. the Steelers on Sunday night and 6 using the Cowboys vs. the Lions. Not surprisingly, those are the teams favored by the most points this week. However, that approach hasn’t worked that well this season as 93.7% of the field didn’t make it through six weeks