Circa contest update for NFL Week 6

By Dave Tuley  ( senior reporter) 


The selections of the contestants for NFL Week 6 in Circa Sports Million IV and Circa Survivor III were released per usual on Saturday afternoon.

While the big news of the young season is how much attrition there has been in Survivor, which drew a Vegas contests record 6,133 entries but was down to 718 after just five weeks, the 4,691-entry field in Circa Sports Million (which also set a Vegas record for a traditional NFL ATS contest) has been having a lot more success.

Each week, we highlight the Top 5 Most-Selected Teams here in these “Circa contest update” reports and on VSiN’s dedicated page HERE (as well as on my Twitter feed @ViewFromVegas). Through Week 5, the top plays are 16-8-1 (66.7%) with the No. 1 pick at 4-1 after losing against the spread for the first time last week on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as 8.5-point home favorites vs. the Atlanta Falcons in a non-covering 21-15 victory.

Another great resource for VSiN followers is “The Football Contest Show” at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT. On Saturday’s show, Circa VP Mike Palm made the point that you know the consensus plays are doing well because it took an 18-1-1 record to tie for the top two spots in the First Quarter (Weeks 1-4, with DONT_STOP_BELIEVING-3 and CT TRIGG-2 winning $105,000 each for their hot starts).

In most Vegas football contests over the years, the conventional wisdom was you needed to hit 60%, or basically average 3-2 every week, in order to cash. When the consensus is hitting at such a high rate, you’re losing ground to a lot of your competition when you go 3-2.

Of course, there’s no guarantee this will continue, but it’s why we keep an eye on how the consensus plays are doing.

The No. 1 choice for Week 6 is the Cincinnati Bengals -1.5 (selected by 1,863, 39.7%, of the contestants), followed by the Buffalo Bills -2.5 at the Kansas City Chiefs, Buccaneers -8 at the Pittsburgh Steelers, Dallas Cowboys + 6 at the Philadelphia Eagles and the Miami Dolphins + 3.5 vs. the Minnesota Vikings.

As mentioned above, Circa Survivor had 718 live entries coming into this week, but it’s actually down to 712 once this week’s selections were released as six players used the Chicago Bears on Thursday night in their 12-7 loss to the Washington Commanders. Conversely, three Survivors used the Commanders and are already onto Week 7 and now hoping for a bunch of upsets on Sunday and Monday.

The Los Angeles Rams are the No. 1 choice in Circa Survivor this week with 275 (38.3%) of the entries putting their hopes on the line with the defending Super Bowl champions against the Carolina Panthers. The Buccaneers were taken by 123 players, followed by the Green Bay Packers (102), San Francisco 49ers (60) and Philadelphia Eagles (46) as 15 different teams were chosen this week.

For the third straight week, a pick for every live Circa Survivor entry was submitted by the 4 p.m. PT contest deadline.



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