Circa contest update for NFL Week 4

By Dave Tuley  ( senior reporter) 

October 1, 2022 08:31 PM

Every week is important in the Circa Sports Million IV and Circa Survivor III football handicapping contests, but NFL Week 4 has a special feel to it.

For starters, Circa Sports Million wraps up its first Quarter with $300,000 in prizes up for grabs. Out of the 4,691 entrants ($1,000 per entry), there are two – DONT_STOP_BELIEVING-3 and The Leong Shots-1 – who enter Week 4 with a perfect record of 15-0 and the inside track for the $150,000 first-place prize. The other quarterly prizes are $60,000 for second, $40,000 for third, $15,000 for fourth and $10,000 for fifth, plus a $25,000 “booby prize” for the worst record.

DONT_STOP_BELIEVING-3’s plays for Week 4 are the Vikings -2.5, Bills -3, Chargers -5, Browns -1 and Cardinals + 1.5. The Leong Shot-1’s plays are the Colts -3.5, Steelers -3, Browns -1, Chiefs pick-’em and 49ers -1.5.

As for the Top 5 consensus (which is 9-6 through the first three weeks, with the No. 1 choice being a perfect 3-0), the Vikings -2.5 vs. the Saints (in London) were the top choice of 2,042 of the entrants, with a big drop-off to the No. 2 Cowboys -3 vs. the Commanders with 1,357 using them, followed by the Raiders -2.5 vs. the Broncos, Cardinals + 1.5 at the Panthers and Steelers -3 vs. the Jets.

For all the consensus plays, go to VSiN’s dedicated Circa contest page HERE.

In CIrca Survivor, there were just 1,550 entries out of the 6,133-entry field (also at $1,000 per entry) that were alive after the first three weeks of the season.

The Packers, the biggest Week 4 favorite at -9.5 vs. the Patriots, were the runaway choice of 689 Survivor players, with a drop-off to 177 on the Steelers, 169 on the Eagles, 163 on the Chargers and 91 on the Lions.

Here’s a chart to show how much more rapidly the Survivor III field has shrunk compared to the first two years of Circa’s contest:


Total entries: 1,390

After Week 1: 805 (57.9%)

After Week 2: 801 (57.6%)

After Week 3: 675 (48.6%)


Total entries: 4,080

After Week 1: 3,397 (83.2%)

After Week 2: 2,985 (73.2%)

After Week 3: 2,917 (71.5%)


Total entries: 6,133

After Week 1: 2,685 (43.8%)

After Week 2: 2,012 (32.8%)

After Week 3: 1,550 (25.2%)

Because so many people have been eliminated, Circa Sports owner Derek J. Stevens wanted to do something for all those Survivor entrants who were already out of it. He announced he’s offering a “Circa Survivor Empathy Package” for anyone who was already totally eliminated after Week 1, 2 or 3 (meaning ALL their entries) and they can receive a free hotel night between Nov. 7 and Jan. 5 (Mondays through Thursdays) and a daybed at Stadium Swim by going HERE and filling out the form.

And one final note – and Circa VP Mike Palm said they also “buried the lead” on VSiN’s “The Football Contest Show – there wasn’t a single “No Pick” out of the 1,550 Survivor players who were alive entering this week. That doesn’t usually happen until we’re much deeper into the contest and a lot fewer live entries.



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