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Christmas Day Sharp Action Report for Vikings-Saints

December 24, 2020 11:25 PM

Merry Christmas! We have several holiday sweats on tap today, including one NFL game, one bowl game, five NBA games and four college hoops games. For an updated breakdown of Friday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET.

For now, let's discuss where the action is flowing for today's NFL matchup.

4:30 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

This late afternoon Christmas Day showdown features a pair of NFC opponents looking to snap two-game losing skids. The Vikings (6-8 SU, 6-8 ATS) just fell to the Bears 33-27 last week, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. Minnesota is technically still alive for a playoff spot but would need to win their final two games and get some serious help in order to sneak in. Meanwhile, the Saints (10-4 SU 7-6-1 ATS) just lost to the Chiefs 32-29, pushing as 3-point home dogs. New Orleans has already clinched a playoff spot and is currently the 2-seed in the NFC. They could rise as high as the 1-seed or fall to the 3-seed depending on how the final two games play out. Minnesota is -28 in point differential this season. New Orleans is + 100.

This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public is all over the Saints, expecting a bounce-back cover against a struggling Vikings squad that just lost to the Bears at home. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen the line fall from Saints -7.5 to -7. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Vikings, with respected pro bettors grabbing the points, not laying them. Minnesota has heightened contrarian value as they are only receiving about one-third of bets in what will be an incredibly heavily bet game. The Vikings also have value as a road dog off a loss (56% ATS this season) and a dog with a line move in their favor (60% ATS). Despite both teams being profitable to the over this season (Vikings 9-4-1 and Saints 9-5), we've seen this total fall from 52 to 51. This signals some sharp money backing the under.

Christmas Day NBA Line Moves

Pelicans + 5 to + 3.5 at Heat

Bucks -8.5 to -10 vs Warriors

Nets -1 to -3 at Celtics

Mavs-Lakers Under 229 to 227.5

Clippers pick'em to -2.5 at Nuggets

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