We hope everyone enjoyed the Super Bowl and was on the Chiefs or at least made money on prop bets.
If last week’s “Point Spread Weekly” helped with your handicapping, you probably did have a winning day. Granted, our VSiN panel of staff members, bookmakers, professional bettors and other media members landed on the 49ers by a 24-13 margin. But it was 22-15 in favor of the Under 54.5 (total at press time), and the prop bets given in “PSW” and on VSiN’s on-air programming should have made it possible for anyone to profit on sports betting’s biggest day.
The Chiefs’ 31-20 win couldn’t have worked out much better for us here at the Tuley’s Takes home office. I ended up going with a six-point teaser on Chiefs + 4.5/Over 48 as my Best Bet (and biggest personal bet). It cashed thanks to Damien Williams’ 38-yard TD run with 1:12 left. I felt good about my pick as I actually thought the 49ers, trailing 24-20 on the previous drive, would march down and win 27-24 to cash my ticket — and that’s exactly the scenario I was protecting myself against with the teaser through zero, which I usually don’t recommend.
Anyway, that was the extra sauce on the chicken wings as we killed it on the props, which were almost exclusively those we gave in last week’s “PSW” and on VSiN shows. I went 3-1 on the shorter-priced props like Shortest TD Under 1.5 Yards, Largest Lead Under 14.5 and yes on Will the Game be Tied After 0-0? My lone loss there was on Players to Have a Pass Attempt at Over 2.5.
But I was actually prouder that I went 5-4 on my long-shot props — those make a ton more money even if you’re way below .500 — with wins on Patrick Mahomes scoring the first TD of the game at 14/1, Mahomes scoring the Chiefs’ first TD at 12/1, double result of halftime tie/Chiefs win at 12/1, Chiefs to score exactly 31 points at 12/1 and total points between 51-55 at 6-1.
Since I was asked to predict a final in “PSW,” I came up with Chiefs 31, 49ers 28. I figured I’d be sick if those scores came in, so I bet $100 each. I lost the 49ers bet but was just a TD and two-point conversion from hitting that too. I also lost my 8/1 bet on there being overtime, but no complaints here.
Tuley’s Takes on Super Bowl LV
The NFL, which usually has the Midas touch, missed a golden opportunity this upcoming year. We will have the Las Vegas Raiders playing in a brand-new stadium, so why didn’t they plan ahead so Super Bowl LV would be in Las Vegas?
Anyway, it’s been a tradition to post my Super Bowl future picks right after the season ends. As discussed Sunday night on “The Edge” at the end of VSiN’s 24-hour Super Bowl coverage, I thought many teams could be live long shots. This included the Steelers at 18/1 (with how good they were this season plus getting Ben Roethlisberger back), the Texans at 40/1 (my pick the last two years, so I’ll probably still bet them just in case I was too early) and the Bills at 40/1 (especially if you think Tom Brady is leaving the Patriots). However, for my official Best Bets, I like to narrow it to a top play in each conference.
Titans (40/1, Westgate): With league-leading rusher Derrick Henry making it easier for QB Ryan Tannehill, this team really impressed and nearly beat the Chiefs in the AFC championship game. I also love what coach Mike Vrabel has done with the defense. I think 40/1 is a fair price and unlikely to be offered higher.
Falcons (50/1, Westgate): I nearly hit my published pick of the Falcons at 40/1 three years ago. They showed in their upsets of the Saints and the Panthers last season that they’re not that far from competing for the title again. I guess the odds could drift higher like last time, but I’m betting it now.