Genoa vs. Sassuolo (+ 136)
I’m going back to the well with Sassuolo. They lost to Napoli 2-0 on a late tap-in goal in a very close game. Four Sassuolo goals were disallowed due to offsides. They could have easily tied or won it. Genoa looked completely uninterested against Inter. It seemed like they tried offensively for about 20 minutes. They were very passive the rest of the game and tried to keep it in the middle third. Goals in Serie A have really slowed down recently. Teams like Genoa that have very thin benches might be on their last legs. I would bet Sassuolo at Pk -140 or ML at + 136. I prefer Pk to avoid the draw, but I know some like the plus money.
Pick: Pk (-140) or ML + 136
Roma vs. Torino Over 3 (-118)
I like the Over 3 in this match, currently -118. Seven of nine Roma matches have had three or more goals since the restart. I would grab Over 2.5 or 2.5, 3.0 at better odds if you can. Five of the nine have landed on 3, so I would take Over 2.5, 3.0 at -140. Torino is lower scoring but will typically go Over the number against top-six clubs, with three against Lazio, five against Juventus and four against Inter. Also, Torino doesn’t need a draw. They are safe, and I would expect this game to be open and have some goals.
Pick: Over 3 (-118) or Over 2.5, 3.0 (-140)
Milan vs. Sampdoria -1 (+ 108)
Sampdoria is already safe in the mid-table. Milan is only one point ahead of Napoli for the last top-six spot. The Red and Blacks really should be going for the win here. They are unbeaten since the restart. They do have some draws, but I would argue this is the most in-form side in Serie A. I always prefer to lay juice on favorites to avoid the common -1 push if the moneyline is under -200. However, I know some people don’t like laying that much juice. I do think Milan is far superior, and I would make this closer to -200. I am a supporter of Milan -160 ML or -1 at even money or better.
Pick: Milan -160 or -1 even or better
Arsenal vs. Chelsea (-155 to win FA Cup)
In the FA Cup final, Arsenal needs to win to make it into the Europa League. Chelsea is in the Champions League. So you would think Arsenal has more incentive. I would make several points. One, Arsenal is very inconsistent, and I don’t trust them in a big spot like this. Two, Frank Lampard will want silverware in his first season as Chelsea’s manager. Third, I just think Chelsea is a far superior club. It’s tough to call in regulation, but I like Chelsea to lift the cup at -155.
Pick: Chelsea FA Champ -155