Betting Splits and CFB Sharp Money Picks for Saturday September 9

September 9, 2023 04:09 AM

Starting today, you can now wake up on the weekends with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I'll also be joining The Sweat LIVE from the DraftKings studio in Boston from 8 to 10 a.m. ET to help break down today's Week 2 College Football slate. It will be streamed live on Twitter and on

You can also track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for today's College Football action...


12 p.m. ET: Notre Dame (-7, 50) at NC State

Notre Dame (2-0) is ranked 10th and just crushed Tennessee State 56-3, covering as a 48.5-point home favorite. Meanwhile, NC State (1-0) edged Connecticut 24-14 in their season opener but failed to cover as 14.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Notre Dame listed as high as an 8.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy blowout win for the high-flying Irish. However, despite 87% of bets laying the points we've actually seen Notre Dame fall from -8.5 to -7. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they're already backing the Irish to begin with? Because wiseguys have jumped on NC State plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in their favor. Late movement is also breaking NC State's way as they've fallen from +7.5 to +7 over the past 24-hours. NC State is contrarian in a heavily bet game (only receiving 13% of bets) and also has buy-low value as an unranked home dog against a ranked opponent. The Wolfpack also enjoy extra rest, as they last played on August 31st while Notre Dame played on September 2nd.


12 p.m. ET: Nebraska at Colorado (-2.5, 58)

Nebraska (0-1) dropped their season opener to Minnesota 13-10 but were able to cover as 7.5-point road dogs. On the flip side, Colorado (1-0) is ranked 22nd and just pulled off a huge upset over TCU 45-42, winning outright as 21-point road dogs. The early lookahead line on this game was Nebraska favored by roughly a touchdown. However, after Colorado's impressive opening day performance we saw oddsmakers re-open the Buffaloes as a 3-point home favorite. The public is absolutely hammering Colorado, with a whopping 90% of bets laying the points with Coach Prime's club. Walk into any bar in America today and nearly everyone is backing Colorado. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen Colorado fall from -3 to -2.5. This signals smart money buying low on Nebraska plus the points, specifically at the key number of +3. Nebraska is the top contrarian play of the week, receiving only 10% of bets in the most heavily bet game of the day. They also have value as an unranked team versus a ranked opponent. Short road dogs +4 or less are roughly 54% ATS over the past decade. Nebraska has a rest advantage, having last played on August 31st while Colorado played on September 2nd. It's also an overreaction value play on Nebraska, who was initially favored by 7-points and is now an underdog.


10:30 p.m. ET: Auburn (-6, 55) at California

Auburn (1-0) rolled Massachusetts 59-14 in their season opener, easily covering as 35-point home favorites. Similarly, California (1-0) crushed North Texas 58-21, cashing as 5-point road favorites without a sweat. This line opened with Auburn listed as a 7-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with a big-name SEC school over a PAC 12 competitor. However, despite receiving 71% of bets we've seen Auburn fall from -7 to -6. This signals smart money taking the points with the home dog. Cal is only receiving 29% of bets but a notable 66% of money, indicating a massive "low bets, higher dollars" sharp bet discrepancy. Cal also has great contrarian value, receiving roughly a third of bets in a late night primetime game on ESPN. Sharps also seem to be leaning under, as the total has dipped from 56 to 55 across the market. This movement is notable because 84% of bets are sweating the over, yet the total fell. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the under.

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