Betting Splits and CFB Sharp Money Picks for Saturday September 16

September 16, 2023 04:11 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I'll also be breaking down games this morning from 8 to 10 a.m. ET on The Sweat, live from the DraftKings studio in Boston. 

You can also track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for today's loaded College Football slate...


12 p.m. ET: Liberty (-3, 54) at Buffalo

Liberty (2-0) is undefeated, taking down Bowling Green 34-24 in the opener and then beating New Mexico State 33-17 last week. Conversely, Buffalo (0-2) is winless, losing to Wisconsin 38-17 in the opener and then falling to Fordham 40-37. This line opened with Liberty listed as high as a 4.5-point road favorite. The public can't believe this line is so short and 64% of bets are laying the points with Liberty. However, despite this lopsided bet split, we've seen Liberty fall from -4.5 to -3. This indicates smart money grabbing the points with Buffalo, triggering sharp line movement in favor of the home dog. Buffalo is only receiving 36% of bets but 62% of money, a massive sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Buffalo also has buy-low value as a winless home dog against a sell-high undefeated road favorite. 


12 p.m. ET: Kansas State (-3.5, 49.5) at Missouri

Kansas State (2-0) is undefeated and ranked 15th. The Wildcats crushed Southeast Missouri 45-0 in the opener and then beat Troy 42-13. Similarly, Missouri (2-0) is also undefeated, taking down South Dakota 35-10 in the opener and then edging Middle Tennessee State 23-19. This line opened with Kansas State listed as a 5.5-point road favorite. The public is hammering Kansas State, with a whopping 88% of bets laying the points. However, we've actually seen Kansas State fall from -5.5 to -3.5 despite this overwhelming support. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they're already sweating Kansas State to begin with? Because respected wiseguy action has grabbed the points with the unpopular home dog, causing line movement in favor of the Tigers. Missouri is only receiving 12% of bets in the most heavily bet early game, making the Tigers the top contrarian play of the early slate. Missouri also has buy-low value as an unranked home dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. 


7 p.m. ET: Tennessee (-5.5, 56) at Florida

Tennessee (2-0) undefeated and ranked 11th overall. The Vols crushed Virginia 49-13 in the opener and then brushed aside Austin Peay 30-13 last week. Meanwhile, Florida (1-1) is unranked. The Gators fell to Utah 24-11 in the opener but then bounced back with a 49-7 win over McNeese last week. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 7.5-point road favorite. The public expects an easy blowout win and cover for the Vols. However, despite 76% of bets laying the points, we've seen Tennessee fall from -7.5 to -5.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Gators, with pros grabbing the points with the home dog. Florida is only receiving 24% of bets in a heavily bet primetime game, offering excellent contrarian value. The Gators also have value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field, as well as a buy-low unranked team against a sell-high ranked opponent.  


7:30 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh at West Virginia (-2.5, 47)

Pittsburgh (1-1) opened the season with a 45-7 blowout win over Wofford, then fell to Cincinnati 27-21 last week. On the flip side, West Virginia (1-1) dropped the opener to Penn State 38-15 but then rebounded with a 56-17 rout over Duquesne. This game opened with Pittsburgh listed as a short 1.5-point road favorite. Sharps have gotten down hard on West Virginia, steaming the Mountaineers all the way from +1.5 to -2.5. Essentially, we are seeing sharp "dog-to-favorite" line movement on West Virginia. The Mountaineers are receiving 66% of bets but 82% of money, signaling modest public support but also heavy sharp action. Those looking to be on the sharp side but wary of laying the points could instead target WVU on the moneyline at -140. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 50 to 47. The under is receiving 23% of bets but 73% of money, a massive "low bets, higher dollars" sharp bet discrepancy. 

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