Betting Splits and CFB Sharp Money Picks for Saturday August 26

August 26, 2023 04:13 AM

Today the weekend kicks off with Week 0 of the College Football slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game with our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for today's College Football Opening Day action...


5:30 p.m. ET: UTEP (-1.5, 54) at Jacksonville State

UTEP went 5-7 last season and their win total is set at 5.5 this year with the over juiced to -140. On the other hand, Jacksonville State went an impressive 9-2 but oddsmakers are expecting a step back this year as their win total is 5 with the under juiced to -160. This game opened at roughly a pick'em, with some shops opening UTEP as a short 1-point road favorite. Pros have laid the short chalk with UTEP, pushing the Miners up to -1.5 or even -2 at some books. UTEP is receiving 59% of bets and 73% of money on the moneyline, indicating a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" bet discrepancy. Pros have also hit the over, steaming the total up from 52 to 54. Roughly 70% of bets and dollars are sweating the over. The over matches a "hot over" system as the game-time temperature is expected to be in the high 90s. When the temperature is 90 or more, the over is 87-70 (55%) over the past decade. This is due to defenses being gassed and offenses having the upper hand. 


7 p.m. ET: Massachusetts at New Mexico State (-7, 45)

Massachusetts went just 1-11 last season but oddsmakers are expecting an improvement this year as the Minutemen win total is set at 2.5 with the under juiced to -130. Meanwhile, New Mexico State is coming off a 7-6 campaign and their win total is set at 5.5 with the over juiced to -160. This game opened with New Mexico State listed as a 10-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Aggies and fade UMass. However, despite 78% of bets backing New Mexico State, we've actually seen the line fall from Aggies -10 to -7. This signals sharp reverse line movement on UMass, with pros grabbing the points with the road dog. UMass also has value as a contrarian play, receiving only 28% of bets in a nationally televised primetime game (ESPN). Pros have also leaned over, as the total has ticked up slightly from 44 to 45. The forecast calls for mid 90s, making this another "hot over" system match. 


7 p.m. ET: Ohio at San Diego State (-2.5, 48.5)

Ohio went 10-4 last season and their win total is set at 7.5 this year, with the over juiced slightly to -115. Conversely, San Diego State finished 7-6 last year and their win total sits at 7 this season with the under juiced to -135. This game opened with San Diego State listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Currently 56% of bets are laying the points with the Aztecs. However, despite receiving a majority of bets, we've seen San Diego State fall from -3.5 to -2.5. This indicates smart money grabbing the points the road dog Ohio. The Bobcats are receiving 44% of bets but 71% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet split. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 50 to 48.5. The under is receiving 33% of bets but 70% of money, a massive sharp under bet discrepancy. 

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