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CFB, NFL upsets dramatically alter futures markets

By Adam Burke  ( 


A wild and crazy weekend on the gridiron has led to major changes at the top of the futures boards in college football and the NFL.

Let’s start in college, where the Alabama Crimson Tide fell victim to what every team in college football has been vulnerable to this season -- an upset. There have been some really big upsets this season, but none more notable than one involving the No. 1 team in the country. Alabama lost as an 18-point favorite to Texas A&M and is no longer the favorite to win the College Football Playoff.

That distinction belongs to the Georgia Bulldogs, who are undefeated with wins over Clemson, Arkansas and Auburn. The Bulldogs are a massive favorite against a ranked Kentucky team this week and that could push their CFP price down even more. Caesars Sportsbook went down to + 140 on Georgia, with Alabama at + 160.

Ohio State also moved down into single digits at 9-1. The Big Ten has five teams ranked in the top nine of the AFCA Coaches Poll and five in the top 10 of the AP Top 25, so if the Buckeyes can run the Big Ten table, the Oregon loss will be a distant memory and Ohio State will be one of the final four.

Remember that no two-loss team has ever made the College Football Playoff, but we could end up seeing history in that regard because of how many upsets of ranked teams we have seen.

New NFL MVP, Super Bowl favorites

On the NFL side of things, the Buffalo Bills scored a huge win over the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football -- a performance had a significant impact on the futures markets.

Josh Allen is now one of the co-favorites to win the NFL MVP at Caesars, as he shares the honor with Kyler Murray at + 500. Murray was getting treated for a right arm injury on the sidelines during the win over the 49ers and had a pretty pedestrian stat line in that game. The Bills take on the porous Titans defense this week and the Cardinals draw a much tougher foe in the Browns, so we could see Allen as the unanimous favorite going into Week 7.

Some other MVP odds moved around this week as well. Most notably, the odds for Justin Herbert and Dak Prescott were lowered after huge performances against the Browns and Giants, respectively. Tom Brady still has a shorter price at most shops than those two, but that may not be the case for long, especially with what the Cowboys are doing offensively on a weekly basis.

Another ripple effect of the Bills/Chiefs game was that Kansas City was knocked from the top spot to be the Super Bowl LVI champion. The Chiefs are now slotted down below the Buccaneers and also the Bills. Kansas City is off to a 2-3 start and now also sits two games behind the Chargers in the AFC West, who have a head-to-head win. The Chargers are also the AFC West favorites going into Week 6 action.

While Kansas City’s 2-3 record looks stunning on the surface, the Chiefs have lost to the Bills, Ravens and Chargers. All three look like playoff teams, which is why the Chiefs are still getting some respect at + 650. The Bills are down to + 600 and the Bucs are the favorites at + 550 per the odds at Caesars.

Other shops may have different prices, but it is clear that the very late result on Sunday night in the rain-delayed marquee matchup had a sweeping impact across the NFL futures landscape.

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