CFB conference title game betting history

November 30, 2021 08:25 PM
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This college football season has gone a lot more smoothly than 2020, at least from a scheduling perspective. Last year’s conference championship games were played the weekend before Christmas, nearly mixed with the bowl games as well as certain teams’ final rescheduled regular-season games. It added another challenge to handicapping the conference title clashes. But this year we are essentially back to normal, with all 10 FBS conferences playing their title games this weekend. Of course, the big one is in the Southeastern Conference, where undefeated Georgia will try to keep Alabama out of the College Football Playoff.

It’s a great chance to reflect on what has been a remarkable season, and I predicted an important phenomenon in our VSiN College Football Betting Guide, writing, “What I am especially looking forward to (is) that the extra year of eligibility granted to players by the NCAA has the potential to completely upset the apple cart, at least for one season.” That has turned out to be prophetic, and I think we will see that in a nutshell this weekend, as familiar participants in conference title games like Ohio State, Clemson, Oklahoma, UAB and Boise State will be watching some new teams take the stage.

From a betting perspective, the conference championships are always big, and studying the history of each game can give bettors an edge. This year’s games are projected to be competitive. Last year five games finished with double-digit point spreads, whereas this year only two have lines that big. With the Sun Belt game canceled due to COVID-19, seven of the nine games played were won by underdogs against the spread. Seven also went Under the total. Here is a look at the betting history of each league championship game and how it might affect this year’s contest.

FRIDAY

Conference USA 

Western Kentucky (-1/72) at Texas-San Antonio 

The Conference USA championship gets the weekend started with a 7 p.m. EST kickoff Friday. It is a rematch of a game this season in which UTSA outlasted Western Kentucky 52-46 in a game that featured over 1,200 yards of offense. C-USA has staged 16 title games, and this will be the first since 2017 not including UAB. It will also mark the first appearance for the host Roadrunners. Western Kentucky has appeared twice, winning both outright and ATS. However, the Hilltoppers were hosts both times. Home teams boast an impressive 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS mark since ’06. Favorites own a 9-7 ATS edge all time, though underdogs have covered the last three when the line was less than a TD while favorites of 7 points or more are 4-1 ATS. Also, in the two games since ’09 in which the host was an underdog, that team won both SU and ATS.

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