Thursday College Basketball Sharp Report

February 8, 2023 11:55 PM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday's betting action be sure to catch the VSIN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday's College Basketball slate...


8 p.m. ET: Detroit at Milwaukee (-2, 155.5)

Detroit (10-15) has won two straight games and just took down Purdue Fort Wayne 85-52, covering as 2-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Milwaukee (16-8) just saw their two-game winning streak come to an end, falling to Green Bay 80-79 in overtime, losing outright as 16.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. We've seen Milwaukee creep up from -1.5 to -2, signaling pro money laying the short chalk with the home favorite. Ken Pom has Milwaukee winning by two points (80-78). Milwaukee has the edge on offense (78 PPG vs 76 PPG), defense (allowing 71 PPG vs 76 PPG), rebounding (40 RPG vs 36 RPG) and blocks (6 BPG vs 2 BPG). Milwaukee is 10-5 in conference play. Detroit is 6-8 in conference play. Milwaukee is 10-3 at home. Detroit is 3-11 on the road. Horizon League home favorites are 40-19 (68%) straight up this season. Milwaukee is -125 on the moneyline. 


8:30 p.m. ET: Louisiana at Southern Miss (-2.5, 147.5) 

Louisiana (20-4) has won ten straight games and just brushed aside Marshall 77-67, easily covering as 1-point home favorites. Similarly, Southern Miss (21-4) has won seven straight games and just beat Georgia State 79-71, covering as 4-point road favorites. This line opened with Southern Miss listed as a short 1-point home favorite. Pros have laid the chalk with Southern Miss, steaming the Golden Eagles up from -1 to -2.5. Ken Pom has Southern Miss winning by three points (77-74). He also has Southern Miss ranked slightly higher (88 vs 92). Southern Miss has the edge defensively (64 PPG allowed vs 70 PPG allowed). Southern Miss is a perfect 12-0 at home. Short favorites -4 or less with a line move in their favor are 145-88 (62%) straight up this season with a 5% ROI. Southern Miss is -140 on the moneyline. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 149 to 147.5. 


9 p.m. ET: Montana (-3, 133.5) at Idaho State

Montana (12-12) has won three straight games and just edged Northern Arizona 67-66 but failed to cover as 8-point home favorites. Similarly, Idaho State (9-15) has won two of their last three games and just beat Northern Arizona 75-70, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Montana listed as a 1.5-point road favorite. Sharps seem to think this line is a bit low and have steamed Montana up from -1.5 to -3. This line movement is notable because this is one of the lowest bet games of the day, which means the public has no interest in the matchup but wiseguys have targeted it. Ken Pom has Montana winning by one point (69-68). He also has Montana ranked higher (192 vs 251). Montana has a two-day rest advantage, having last played on February 4th vs Idaho State last playing on February 6th. Montana also has buy-low "bad" ATS value, going just 9-14 ATS this season. 



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