Wednesday College Basketball Sharp Report

February 14, 2023 11:39 PM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Wednesday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Wednesday's College Basketball slate...


7 p.m. ET: Alabama at Tennessee (-3, 145.5) 

Alabama (22-3, ranked 1st) has won four straight games and just took down Auburn 77-69, covering as 2-point road favorites. On the flip side, Tennessee (19-6, ranked 10th) has lost three of their last four games and just fell to Missouri 86-85, losing outright as 12.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 2-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. If Tennessee has the worse record and worse ranking, why are they favored? Shouldn't Alabama be laying points, not getting them? The public sees a layup with the top ranked team in the country. However, despite 65% of bets backing Alabama, this line has moved further to Tennessee -2 to -3. This signals smart money fading the trendy dog and backing the contrarian home favorite Vols. When two Top 10 teams face off, the favorite is 9-3 ATS this season and 18-6 ATS (75%) over the past two seasons. SEC home favorites are 43-13 (77%) straight up in conference play. Ken Pom has Tennessee winning by two points (71-69). Tennessee has the edge on defense (56 PPG allowed by 69 PPG allowed for Alabama). The Vols are 11-2 at home at his season. Tennessee is -150 on the moneyline. 


9 p.m. ET: Arkansas at Texas A&M (-3, 141.5) 

Arkansas (17-8) just saw their three game winning streak come to an end, falling to Mississippi State 70-64 and losing outright as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Texas A&M (18-7) has won three straight and just beat LSU 74-62, covering as 6.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Texas A&M listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Pros have laid the points with the Aggies, driving Texas A%M up from -2.5 to -3. Some shops are even creeping up to -3.5. Ken Pom has Texas A&M winning by two point (73-71). Short home favorites -5 or less with a line move in their favor are 137-98 ATS (58%) in conference play this season. SEC home favorites are 43-13 (77%) straight up in conference play. Texas A&M is 10-2 on conference play. Arkansas is 6-6 in conference play. Texas A&M is 12-1 at home. Arkansas is 2-5 on the road. The Aggies are -155 on the moneyline. 



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