Wednesday College Basketball Sharp Report

January 31, 2023 11:58 PM
utahstate

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Wednesday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 2:30 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Wednesday's College Basketball slate...

 

7 p.m. ET: Massachusetts at George Mason (-4.5, 145.5) 

Massachusetts (13-8) has won two straight games and just defeated Duquesne 87-79, winning outright as 1.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, George Mason (12-10) has lost two straight games and just fell to Saint Joseph's 79-76, losing outright as 6-point home favorites. This line opened with George Mason listed as a 4-point home favorite. Pros have laid the points, driving George Mason up from -4 to -4.5. Short conference home favorites -5 or less with a line move in their favor are 93-74 ATS (56%) this season. Ken Pom has George Mason winning by five points (74-69). He also has George Mason ranked higher (134 vs 152). George Mason is 10-2 at home this season. Massachusetts is 2-4 on the road. George Mason has a big edge in the shooting department (46% vs 42%). George Mason is -190 on the moneyline. Pros have hit the over, steaming the total up from 144 to 145.5. The over is receiving 53% of bets but 97% of money, a sharp over bet discrepancy. 

 

9 p.m. ET: Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (-3.5, 131.5) 

Oklahoma State (12-9) has won three of their last four games and just crushed Ole Miss 82-60, easily covering as 9.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Oklahoma (12-9) just snapped a three game losing skid with a 93-69 win over Alabama, winning outright as 5-point home dogs. This line opened with Oklahoma listed as a 3-point home favorite. Sharps have laid the points with the Sooners, steaming Oklahoma up from -3 to -3.5. Some shops have even inched up to -4. Ken Pom has Oklahoma winning by three points (66-63). Oklahoma is -165 on the moneyline. Short home favorites -4 or less with a line move in their favor are 125-71 (64%) straight up this season. Big 12 home favorites are 26-11 (70%) straight up in conference play. Oklahoma is 7-4 at home. Oklahoma State is 2-5 on the road. We've also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 129.5 to 131.5. 

 

10:30 p.m. ET: New Mexico at Utah State (-4.5, 154.5)

New Mexico (19-3) is 5-1 over their last six games and just beat Air Force 81-73 but failed to cover as 12.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Utah State (17-5) has won three of their last four games and just crushed Fresno State 70-53, easily covering as 4.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Utah State listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public thinks the line is too high and 62% of bets are grabbing the points with New Mexico. However, we've actually seen the line move further to Utah State -3.5 to -4.5. This signals smart money fading trendy dog New Mexico and laying the points with contrarian home favorite Utah State. Utah State is only receiving 38% of bets but 60% of money, a massive smart money discrepancy in their favor. Ken Pom has Utah State winning by four points (82-78). Utah State is -190 on the moneyline. Utah State is 10-1 at home this season. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 155.5 to 154.5. 

 

 

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