Saturday College Basketball Sharp Report

February 3, 2023 11:46 PM

12 p.m. ET: Virginia at Virginia Tech (-1.5, 129.5) 

Virginia (17-3, ranked 6th) has won seven straight games and just edged Syracuse 67-62, pushing as 5-point road favorites. On the other hand, Virginia Tech (13-9) just saw their two game win streak come to an end, falling to Miami 92-83 and failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened at roughly a pick'em. Right off the bat, this line speaks volumes. Shouldn't Virginia be a much bigger favorite due to their superior record and ranking? The public is rushing to the window to back Virginia. However, we've actually seen the line move to Virginia Tech -1.5. This signals smart money backing the fishy home favorite. Virginia Tech is only receiving 42% of bets but 66% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy in their favor. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 21-10 ATS (68%) this season. ACC home favorites are 41-11 (79%) straight up. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the line from 131.5 to 129.5. The under is 5-1 in the last six matchups between the two teams. 


2 p.m. ET: TCU at Oklahoma State (-4, 137.5) 

TCU (17-5, ranked 15th) has won three of their last four games and just beat West Virginia 76-72, covering as 2-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State (13-9) has won four of their last five games and just brushed aside Oklahoma 71-61, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Oklahoma State listed as a 1-point home favorite. The public is split and doesn't know who to back. However, despite this even ticket count we've seen Oklahoma State move from -1 to -4. This indicates sharp money laying the points with the home favorite. Oklahoma State is receiving 49% of bets but 80% of money, a massive smart money discrepancy in their favor. Oklahoma State has value as an unranked home favorite against a ranked opponent (21-10 ATS, 68% this season). Big 12 home favorites are 26-12 (68%) straight up. Oklahoma State is -175 on the moneyline. Wiseguys have also hit the over, steaming the total up from 136 to 137.5. 


4 p.m. ET: Purdue at Indiana (-1.5, 139.5)

Purdue (22-1, ranked 1st) has won nine straight games and just crushed Penn State 80-60, easily covering as 9.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Indiana (15-7, ranked 21st) just saw their five game winning streak come to an end, falling to Maryland 66-55 and failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Purdue listed as a short 1.5-point road favorite. The public sees the layup of the century with the top team in the country laying such a short spread. However, despite the public backing Purdue, we've actually seen this line flip to Indiana -1.5 at home. This signals sharp "dog to favorite" line move on the Hoosiers. Indiana is only receiving 36% of bets but 61% of money, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy in their favor. Short home favorites -4 or less with a line move in their favor in conference play are 98-79 ATS (55%) this season. Big Ten home favorites are 47-12 (80%) straight up. Indiana is -115 on the moneyline. 



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