Saturday College Basketball Sharp Report

February 25, 2023 01:07 AM

2 p.m. ET: Kansas State at Oklahoma State (-2.5, 142.5)

Kansas State (21-7, ranked 14th) has won two straight games and just took down Baylor 75-65, winning outright as 1.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, Oklahoma State (16-12) has lost three straight games and just got crushed by West Virginia 85-67, failing to cover as 5.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Oklahoma State listed as a 2-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Shouldn't Kansas State be the favorite due to their superior record and ranking? Currently 67% of bets are taking the points with Kansas State. However, despite this lopsided betting we've actually seen the line move further to Oklahoma State -2 to -2.5. This signals smart money fading the trendy dog and instead backing the contrarian home favorite. Oklahoma State is receiving 33% of bets but 60% of money, a notable sharp bet discrepancy in their favor. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 30-15 ATS (67%) this season. Big 12 home favorites are 45-16 (74%) straight up in conference play. Oklahoma State is 11-3 at home. Kansas State is 3-5 on the road. Ken Pom has Oklahoma State winning by one point (70-69). Oklahoma State is -140 on the moneyline. 


2 p.m. ET: Texas at Baylor (-3.5, 148.5)

Texas (22-6, ranked 8th) has won three of their last four games and just crushed Iowa State 72-54, easily covering as 7.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Baylor (20-8, ranked 9th) has lost two straight and just fell to Kansas State 75-65, losing outright as 1.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Baylor listed as a 3-point home favorite. Respected money has laid the chalk with the home team, steaming Baylor up from -3 to -3.5. Some shops are even creeping up to -4. Baylor is receiving 70% of bets but 92% of money, signaling both public and sharp support. When two top 10 teams face off, the favorite is 20-6 ATS (77%) over the past two seasons. Ken Pom has Baylor winning by two points (79-77). Baylor is 13-2 at home. Texas is 4-4 on the road. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 151.5 to 148.5. The under is 10-4 in Baylor's last 14 home games. This is a revenge spot for Baylor, who lost to Texas 76-71 back on January 30th. 


6 p.m. ET: Virginia at North Carolina (-3, 130.5)

Virginia (21-5, ranked 6th) just saw their four game winning streak come to an end, falling to Boston College 63-48 and losing outright as 9-point road favorites. On the other hand, North Carolina (17-11) just snapped a two game losing skid with a 63-59 win over Notre Dame but failed to cover as 6.5-point road favorites. This line opened with North Carolina listed as a 2-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they're rushing to the window to take the points with Virginia. However, despite 60% of bets taking Virginia, the line has moved further toward North Carolina -2 to -3. This signals sharp action on the contrarian home favorite, with pros laying the points with the Tar Heels. North Carolina is receiving 40% of bets but 65% of money, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 30-15 ATS (67%) this season. ACC home favorites are 63-16 (80%) straight up in conference play. Ken Pom has UNC winning by two points (68-66). UNC is -155 on the moneyline. 

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