Thursday College Basketball Sharp Report

February 16, 2023 02:29 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET. highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

In he meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday's College Basketball slate...


6:30 p.m. ET: Purdue (-1.5, 132.5) at Maryland

Purdue (23-3, ranked 3rd) has lost two of their last three games and just fell to Northwestern 64-58, losing outright as 5-point road favorites. On the flip side, Maryland (17-8) has won five of their last six games and just edged Penn State 74-68 but failed to cover as 8-point home favorites. This line opened with Purdue listed as a 2-point road favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. If Purdue has such a superior record and ranking, shouldn't they be a much bigger favorite? Why are they only laying a couple of points? The public is rushing to the window to back the Boilermakers at a low number. However, despite 72% of bets backing Purdue, we've seen Purdue remain frozen at -2. Some shops have even dipped to -1.5. This signals a combination of a sharp line freeze and some reverse line movement on the home dog, with pros grabbing the points with Maryland. The Terps are only receiving 28% of bets but 45% of money, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy in Maryland's favor. Buy-low unranked teams vs sell-high ranked opponents are 218-162 ATS (57%) this season. Short home dogs +2 or less in conference play are 66-47 ATS (58%). Ken Pom has Purdue winning by one point (68-67), lending value to the Terps plus the points. Maryland is 13-1 at home this season. 


8 p.m. ET: Colorado at Arizona State (-2.5, 138) 

Colorado (14-12) just saw their two game winning streak come to an end, falling to Utah 73-62 and failing to cover as 4-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Arizona State (18-8) has won three of their last four games and just took down California 70-62 in overtime but failed to cover as 9.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Arizona State listed as a 2-point home favorite. Pros have laid the points with the home favorite, steaming Arizona State up from -2 to -2.5. Some shops are even inching up to -3. Ken Pom has Arizona State winning by three points (70-67). Pac 12 home favorites are 45-12 (79%) straight up in conference play. Arizona State is -145 on the moneyline. Arizona state is 9-6 in conference play. Colorado is 6-9 in conference play. Arizona State is 9-4 at home. Colorado is just 1-8 on the road. Sharps have also hit the over, raising the total from 136 to 138. The over is receiving 70% of bets but 92% of money, a sharp over bet discrepancy. 



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