Monday College Basketball Sharp Report

February 27, 2023 01:31 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Monday's College Basketball action...


7 p.m. ET: North Carolina (-7, 151.5) at Florida State 

North Carolina (18-11) has won two straight games and just took down Virginia 71-63, covering as 4.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Florida State (9-20) just snapped a four game losing skid with an 85-54 win over Miami, winning outright as 13-point road dogs. This line opened with North Carolina listed as an 8-point road favorite. Currently 60% of bets are laying the points with the Tar Heels. However, we've actually seen North Carolina fall from -8 to -7 despite getting a majority of bets. This signals pro money grabbing the points with home dog Florida State. Pros have also leaned under, dropping the total from 152.5 to 151.5. North Carolina is 16-13 to the under, including 7-3 to the under on the road. 


9 p.m. ET: Baylor (-1.5, 142.5) at Oklahoma State 

Baylor (21-8, ranked 9th) just snapped a two game losing streak with an 81-72 win over Texas, covering as 4-point home favorites. On the other hand, Oklahoma State (16-13) has dropped four straight games and just fell to Kansas State 73-68, losing outright as 3.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Baylor listed as a short 1.5-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is criminally low and they're rushing to the window to back Baylor at a short price. However, despite Baylor receiving 88% of bets the Bears haven't budged off -1.5. Typically in these spots you'd see the popular team rise from -1.5 to -2.5 or higher. This signals a sharp line freeze on the home dog, with wiseguys taking the points with Oklahoma State. Unranked teams vs ranked opponents are 249-184 ATS (58%) this season. Ken Pom has Baylor winning by one point (73-72). Oklahoma State is 11-4 at home. Baylor is 4-5 on the road. 


9 p.m. ET: Montana State at Eastern Washington (-3, 144.5)

Montana State (21-9) has won four straight games and just beat Portland State 91-78, covering as 10-point home favorites. On the flip side, Eastern Washington (22-8) just saw their 18-game win streak come to an end, falling to Idaho State 71-63 and losing outright as 5.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Eastern Washington listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Respected money has sided with the home favorite, driving Eastern Washington up to -3 at several shops. Ken Pom has Eastern Washington winning by three points (74-71). Eastern Washington has the superior offense (77 PPG vs 74 PPG), shooting (49% vs 47%) and rebounding (37 RPG vs 33 RPG). Eastern Washington is a perfect 11-0 at home this season. Big Sky home favorites are 40-18 (69%) this season. Eastern Washington is -150 on the moneyline. 


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