Thursday College Basketball Sharp Report

February 23, 2023 02:49 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday's College Basketball slate...


6:30 p.m. ET: Penn State at Ohio State (-2, 142)

Penn State (16-11) has won two straight games and just took down Minnesota 76-69, pushing as 7-point home favorites. On the other hand, Ohio State (11-16) has lost eight straight games and just got crushed by Purdue 82-55, failing to cover as 13-point road dogs. This line opened with Ohio State listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. This opening line speaks volumes. Why is an 11-16 team favored over a 16-11 team? Isn't the wrong team favored? The public is loading up on Penn State. However, despite 65% of bets taking Penn State we've actually seen the line move further to Ohio State -1.5 to -2. This signals pro money fading the trendy dog and backing the contrarian favorite instead. Ken Pom has Ohio State winning by two points (75-73). Big Ten home favorites are 64-19 (77%) straight up this season. Ohio State is 8-5 at home. Penn State is 2-7 on the road. The Buckeyes are -130 on the moneyline. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 144 to 142. The under is receiving 50% of bets but 64% money, a sharp under bet discrepancy. 


9 p.m. ET: USC at Colorado (-2.5, 140.5)

USC (19-8) has won two straight games and beat Stanford 85-75, covering as 6.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Colorado (15-13) has lost two of their last three games and just fell to Arizona 78-68 but covered as 13-point road dogs. This line opened with Colorado listed as as low as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to take the points with USC, who has a better won-loss record. However, despite 65% of bets backing USC we've seen the line move to Colorado -1.5 to -2.5. This signals pro money backing the contrarian home favorite. Colorado is only receiving 35% of bets but 69% of money, a massive sharp bet discrepancy. Ken Pom has Colorado winning by three points (72-69). PAC 12 home favorites are 55-13 (81%) straight up in conference play. Colorado is 11-2 at home this season. USC is 3-5 on the road. 


11 p.m. ET: Washington State at Stanford (-1.5, 134.5)

Washington State (13-15) has won three straight games and just edged Oregon 68-65, covering as 1.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Stanford (11-16) has dropped four of their last five games and just fell to USC 85-75, failing to cover as 6.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Stanford listed as a short 1-point home favorite. Pros have laid the chalk with the home team, steaming Stanford up from -1 to -1.5. Some shops are inching up to -2. Short home favorites -5 or less with a line move in their favor in conference play are 159-122 ATS (57%) this season. PAC 12 home favorites are 55-13 (81%) straight up in conference play. Ken Pom has Stanford winning by one point (69-68). Stanford holds the edge in the shooting department (45% vs 42%). Stanford is 8-5 at home this season. Washington State is 1-8 on the road. 



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