Tuesday College Basketball Sharp Report

February 21, 2023 02:26 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Tuesday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Tuesday's College Basketball slate...


7 p.m. ET: Miami at Virginia Tech (-2, 153.5) 

Miami (22-5, ranked 13th) has won six straight games and just edged Wake Forest 96-87, covering as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech (16-11) has rotated wins and losses over their last six games and just beat Pittsburgh 79-72, covering as 5.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Virginia Tech listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Isn't the wrong team favored? Shouldn't Miami be laying points, not getting them? Despite 65% of bets backing Miami, we've actually seen this line move further to Virginia Tech (-1.5 to -2), signaling pro money backing the home contrarian favorite. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 29-13 ATS (69%) this season. ACC home favorites are 59-15 straight up (80%). The Hokies are 12-3 at home. 


7 p.m. ET: Baylor (-2, 146.5) at Kansas State

Baylor (20-7, ranked 9th) just saw their four game winning streak come to an end, falling to Kansas 87-71 and failing to cover as 5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Kansas State (20-7, ranked 14th) just snapped a two game losing skid with a 61-55 win over Iowa State, covering as 4-point home favorites. This line opened with Baylor listed as a 1-point road favorite. Pros seem to think this line is a bit short and they've steamed Baylor up from -1 to -2. Baylor is receiving 60% of bets but 75% of money, signaling slight public support but also heavy smart money. When two ranked teams face off, the favorite is 46-35 ATS (57%). Big 12 road favorites are 15-7 (68%) straight up this season. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 148 to 146.5. The under is 5-0 in the last five Kansas State home games. 


9 p.m. ET: Indiana at Michigan State (-3.5, 135.5)

Indiana (19-8, ranked 17th) has won four of their last five games and just edged Illinois 71-68 but failed to cover as 6.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Michigan State (16-10) just saw their two game win streak come to an end, falling to Michigan 84-72 and failing to cover as 2.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Michigan State listed as low as a 2-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle, yet we've seen Michigan State move from -2 to -3.5. This signals pro money laying the points with the home favorite. The Spartans are receiving 50% of bets but 85% of money, a massive smart money discrepancy in their favor. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 29-13 ATS (69%) this season. Big Ten home favorites are 62-19 (77%) straight up. 



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