Saturday College Basketball Sharp Report

February 10, 2023 10:49 PM

2 p.m. ET: Rutgers at Illinois (-5, 132.5) 

Rutgers (16-8, ranked 24th) just saw their two-game winning streak come to an end, falling to Indiana 66-60 and failing to cover as 4.5-point road dogs. Similarly, Illinois (16-7) just saw their three-game winning streak end, falling to Iowa 81-79 but covering as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Illinois listed as a 4.5-point favorite. Sharps have laid the chalk with the home favorite, driving Illinois up from -4.5 to -5. Illinois has value as a fishy unranked home favorite vs a ranked opponent (24-11 ATS, 69% this season). Ken Pom has Illinois winning by two points (66-64). Illinois is 11-2 at home this season. Rutgers is 2-5 on the road. Illinois also enjoys a rest advantage, having last played on February 4th vs Indiana last playing February 7th. Big Ten home favorites are 54-15 (78%) straight up in conference play this season. Illinois is -200 on the moneyline. 


4 p.m. ET: Baylor (-1, 149.5) at TCU

Baylor (18-6, ranked 14th) has won eight of their last nine games and just took down Oklahoma 82-72, covering as 9.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, TCU (17-7, ranked 17th) has lost three of their last four games and just got crushed by Kansas State 82-61, failing to cover as 4.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Baylor listed as a short 2.5-point road favorite. Pros have pounced on TCU in a buy-low spot at home, steaming the line down to Baylor -1. Some shops have even hinted as a move down to a pick'em. Essentially all liability is on TCU. Ken Pom has TCU winning by one point (76-75). TCU is 11-2 at home this season. Baylor is 3-3 on the road. The total is 149.5. Both teams are "over" teams, with Baylor 13-11 to the over including 4-2 to the over at road and TCU 14-10 to the over including 8-5 to the over at home. These teams met on back on January 4th and TCU beat Baylor 88-87 on the road. 


6 p.m. ET: Indiana at Michigan (-2.5, 144)

Indiana (17-7, ranked 18th) has won seven of their last eight games and just edged Rutgers 66-60, covering as 4.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Michigan (14-10) has won three straight games and just crushed Nebraska 93-72, easily covering as 11.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Michigan listed as low as a 1.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is unranked Michigan favored? Shouldn't Indiana be the favorite due to their superior record and ranking? Sharps have embraced the fishy home favorite, steaming the Wolverines up from -1.5 to -2.5. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 24-11 ATS (69%) this season. Michigan is 10-3 at home this season. Indiana is 3-5 on the road. Big Ten home favorites are 54-15 (78%) straight up in conference play. Michigan is -140 on the moneyline. 



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