Saturday College Basketball Sharp Report

February 17, 2023 11:45 PM

1 p.m. ET: Tennessee (-2, 135.5) at Kentucky

Tennessee (20-6, ranked 10th) just snapped a two game losing skid with a 68-59 win over Alabama, covering as 3-point home favorites. Similarly, Kentucky (17-9) just snapped a two game losing streak with a 71-68 win over Mississippi State, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public is laying the points with the Volunteers, who have a superior record and ranking. However, despite receiving 65% of bets, Tennessee has fallen from -2.5 to -2. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the home dog, with pros taking the points with contrarian Kentucky. Unranked teams vs ranked opponents are 223-164 ATS (58%) this season. Short home dogs +2 or less in conference play are 68-49 ATS (58%). Kentucky has the better shooting percentage (46% vs 43%). The Wildcats are 12-3 at home this season. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 137 to 135.5. Tennessee is 16-10 to the under, including 5-2 to the under on the road. The under is receiving 29% of bets but 79% of money, a massive sharp money discrepancy. 


6 p.m. ET: Texas A&M at Missouri (-2, 152.5)

Texas A&M (19-7) has won four straight games and just took down Arkansas 62-56, covering as 4-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Missouri (19-7) just saw their two game win steak come to an end, losing to Auburn 89-56 and failing to cover as 7-point road dogs. This line opened at roughly a pick'em. Some shops even opened Texas A&M listed as a short 1-point road favorite. Respected money has sided with the home team, steaming Missouri up to -2. Short home favorites -5 or less with a line move in their favor in conference play are 147-109 ATS (57%) this season. SEC home favorites are 46-14 (77%) straight up in conference play. Missouri has the edge offensively (81 PPG vs 75 PPG) and in the shooting department (48% vs 45%). Ken Pom has Missouri winning by one point (80-79). Missouri is 14-2 at home this season. Missouri is -130 on the moneyline. Missouri also enjoys a one day rest advantage, having last played on February 14th vs Texas A&M last playing on February 15th. 



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