Many bettors have a tough time laying points with teams that struggle at the free throw line. Few things are more frustrating than needing to rely on a guy making 40% of his foul shots to hit a pair of free throws to cash your ticket.
What many bettors lose sight of is that while these free throws are big for deciding a spread, they can have just as big an effect on the total.
Ten college basketball teams entered Tuesday’s games with more than 70% of their totals going Under. Just two had a free throw shooting percentage in the top 200.
The trend is not quite so strong for the Over but still appears to be relevant. Among the top 15 teams in free throw shooting percentage, 11 have had at least 47.5% of their games go Over the total this season.
The biggest thing with free throws in relation to totals is that Unders seem to come through more often with bad free throw shooting teams since they’re passing up points, especially late, when teams are extending games.
With 10 of the 16 worst free throw shooting percentage teams hitting Unders at a clip of at least 59% entering Tuesday, it might be a good idea to correlate free throw woes to Unders.