Can new-era Giants cash their over 6 win total?

May 26, 2020 12:35 AM

Over the weekend, newly retired Giants quarterback Eli Manning made his social media debut. The two-time Super Bowl champion joined Twitter  just in time for Sunday's "The Match," which pitted Tiger Woods and big brother Peyton against Phil Mickelson and Tom Brady. Tiger and Peyton secured the victory and the celebrity golf game raised $20 million for Coronavirus relief. Brady even got a chance to "welcome" Eli to social media, tweeting "you never showed up until the 4th quarter anyway."

All jokes aside, the New York Giants enter new and uncharted territory in 2020. For the first time since 2004, they no longer have Eli to lean on (or kick around). In 16 seasons with Big Blue, Manning finished 57,023 passing yards, 366 touchdowns, 244 interceptions and a passer rating of 84.1. But most important, he hoisted a pair of Lombardi trophies, including one of the greatest upsets in Super Bowl history: Taking down the undefeated Patriots 17-14 as a 12.5-point underdog in 2007. Amazingly, Eli finished with a career record of 117-117, exactly .500. 

Manning only played in four games last season as the Giants elected to pass the torch to first-round draft pick Daniel Jones. However, Eli still acted as a valuable mentor and calming veteran backup. With Eli gone, it's all on Jones' shoulders moving forward.

The Giants finished a putrid 4-12 last season. However, after starting the season 2-11, New York showed some improvement late by winning two of their final three games. 

What do the oddsmakers expect from New York this season with Jones entering Year 2?

The Giants' 2020 win total is set at 6 across the market. Interestingly, all juice liability is on the over.

At Circa Sports and FanDuel, the over 6 is -115 (the under is -105). DraftKings is even heavier on the over, with the 6 over juiced up to -143 (under + 118). Believe it or not, PointsBet is actually hanging a win total of 6.5 (under -145, over + 115).

Reading between the lines, it looks as though the Giants are due for an improvement to 6-10 or 7-9 this season. 

One reason to lean on the Giants over win total: Their easy strength of schedule. New York's 2020 opponents went a combined 123-132-1 last season (.482), which gives the Giants the 7th-easiest schedule overall.

Here's the full G-Men schedule in 2020

Week 1: vs Steelers

Week 2: at Bears

Week 3: vs 49ers

Week 4: at Rams

Week 5: at Cowboys

Week 6: vs Redskins

Week 7: at Eagles

Week 8: vs Bucs

Week 9: at Redskins

Week 10: vs Eagles

Week 11: Bye

Week 12: at Bengals

Week 13: at Seahawks

Week 14: vs Cardinals

Week 15: vs Browns

Week 16: at Ravens

Week 17: vs Cowboys

Despite the oddsmakers expecting an improved Giants squad in 2020, New York is unlikely to make the postseason. The Giants are -550 to miss the playoffs at FanDuel (+ 380 to make the playoffs). 

New York is a + 900 longshot to win the NFC East. The Cowboys are the favorite at -105 with the Eagles a close second at + 140. The Redskins are a distant + 1300.

The Giants have the second-worst odds to win the NFC at + 4000. New York is + 8000 to win the Super Bowl. 

It's been a big offseason makeover for the G-Men. In addition to losing Eli, New York also made a change at head coach, firing Pat Shurmur and hiring 38-year-old Patriots special teams coach Joe Judge. The Giants also brought in former Cowboys coach Jason Garrett to take over as offensive coordinator. 

New York was active in free agency, adding cornerback James Bradberry, linebackers Blake Martinez and Kyler Fackrell, offensive lineman Cameron Fleming, running back Dion Lewis and quarterback Colt McCoy. The Giants also franchise tagged defensive lineman Leonard Williams. 

The Giants solidified their porous offensive line by drafting Georgia tackle Andrew Thomas with the 4th overall pick. New York added Alabama safety Xavier McKinney early in the 2nd round. 

In terms of prop bets, Daniel Jones' over/under passing yards is set at 3.800.5 at DraftKings. His over/under passing touchdowns is 25.5. In his rookie year, Jones threw for 3,027 yards with 24 touchdowns. 

Saquan Barkley's over/under rushing yards is 1,250.5. Barkley regressed last season, rushing for 1,003 yards after putting up 1,307 in his rookie season in 2018.

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