There are four games to follow the forecast for in the Wild-Card Weekend playoff games and we’ve already seen a bit of a totals move on one of them. I apologize that I switched days between the weather forecast and the NBA situational spots, seeing as how a lot of bettors start to plug into the weather on Wednesday, especially with a couple of Saturday games in the mix.
A day late, perhaps, but hopefully not any dollars short as we examine what Mother Nature has in store for the start of the postseason.
Raiders at Bengals (-5, 48.5) – The forecast for the afternoon kickoff in the Queen City looks a bit better than it initially did. It will be cold for the indoor Raiders with temperatures around 30, but wind will not be a major factor and the rain/snow mix that was expected looks to be light or non-existent. Keep an eye on the forecast as we go forward, but it looks fairly decent, at least as decent as mid-January in Ohio can be.
Patriots at Bills (-4, 44) – The lock of the year so far is that it will be cold in Buffalo on Saturday night. Winds will be calming throughout the day, so those won’t be a problem, but it will be frigid with single-digit temperatures and mostly clear skies. The total has been stuck at 44 and the spread is stuck at 4. I think Belichick dog money may move this to 3.5 at some point, but the Bills’ passing attack won’t be threatened by wind and that’s important.
Eagles at Bucs (-8.5, 46) – The first Sunday game is the main weather game of the Wild-Card Weekend. There is a chance of rain and even a thunderstorm, but winds gusting up to the 30 mph range will be the primary concern. That would seem to hurt Tampa Bay more than Philadelphia, but we’ve seen a move on the side, but not a move on the total.
It is interesting that there is no correlation between side and total. A lot of bettors like dogs in lower-scoring environments, but as this total has gone down, the spread has not. I think that speaks a little bit to the confidence level in both teams.
Steelers at Chiefs (-12.5, 46.5) – Sunday night looks pretty decent in KC. Temperatures will be in the upper 20s, but no precipitation is in the forecast and the winds won’t be much of a factor at all. This total has ticked down, but given that the Steelers have a decent defense and a putrid offense, it is more about that and not about any weather factors.