Drama and domination were the two storylines from Saturday’s Wild-Card Weekend action, as the Bengals celebrated a playoff win for the first time in two decades with a goal-line interception and the Bills had one of the most complete performances ever in the rout against the Patriots.
We’ve got three more playoff games today and we’ve really only seen significant line movement in one of those games, the matchup between the Eagles and Bucs. Weather is the primary factor for that move, so it certainly looks like the books posted sharp numbers. This time of the year does feature the sharpest and most efficient lines, so you’ll have to either bet into tight numbers or try to find value elsewhere. That means looking at player props.
Here are a few I like for today:
Eagles vs. Bucs
Tom Brady Over 1.5 Rushing Yards - Quarterbacks tend to run a little bit more in the postseason. There isn’t as much thought about the big picture because these games are all so important. Brady knows what it takes to win in the playoffs better than anyone and today’s wet and windy conditions may cause him to scramble a little bit. One huge concern is the kneel-down, which could hurt with this prop because the Bucs should be winning at the end, but I still think Brady will have to run a little bit here because the throwing conditions will be suboptimal.
Jalen Reagor Over 15.5 Receiving Yards - While the weather isn’t going to be very cooperative, the Eagles will still have to put the ball in the air a few times. The spread suggests that the Eagles will be trailing and that will mean throwing to play catch-up. I also believe, despite the wind, that Philadelphia has to try to keep Tampa Bay honest. There were some deep shots open in the regular season meeting between the two. Reagor is a big-play guy. He may only need one catch to get over this.
49ers vs. Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott Longest Rush Under 12.5 Yards - The Cowboys offense has been firing on all cylinders lately, but has also faced a lot of mediocre to bad defenses. The 49ers are a formidable unit and my guess is that the game-plan will feature a lot of passing plays and limited opportunities for Elliott to rip off big plays. It really shocked me that Elliott wound up a 1,000-yard rusher. He’s only averaged 3.5 yards per carry in his last nine games. I don’t see explosive plays today.