The bowl season takes up a long period of time. As we know, lines get posted the day that the bowl matchups are announced and get a chance to marinate for a while before the game actually kicks off. One thing that you will notice with the bowl games is that what happens in early bowls will have an impact on how the later bowls get bet.
Our two games on Dec. 17 featured MAC teams, as Toledo lost outright as a double-digit favorite to Middle Tennessee and Northern Illinois covered in a losing effort against Coastal Carolina. Both games went over the total. We have another MAC team in action today in Eastern Michigan as a big pup to Liberty.
Future MAC bowl games include Kent State, Miami of Ohio, Ball State and Western Michigan. If a conference gets off to a bad start or plays really poorly on defense, like we saw from both teams yesterday, the markets will respond. They’ll fade that conference and/or bet whichever side of the total makes more sense.
My guess is that the weather in Mobile for today’s LendingTree Bowl is keeping the total in check. We have over money already for the Potato Bowl, Frisco Football Classic and Camellia Bowl. The total on the Quick Lane Bowl dropped like a rock, but that’s because Carson Strong opted out for Nevada and the Wolf Pack coaching staff is in shambles.
As other conferences pick up more data points, watch for those results to influence how future games are bet.