Burke: Sunday morning quick NFL handicaps

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

January 9, 2022 11:03 AM

The Week 18 NFL board seems pretty daunting, but I’ve actually wound up finding a lot more picks than I expected. Some of them are centered around player props and some important benchmarks for those guys, which is something I’ve talked about a lot this week on my appearances and in these Blurbs. Make sure you dig around for some creative things. They are out there.

In fact, I wrote up a piece for our friends at DK Nation on that very thing with three player prop picks and the reasons why that I encourage you to check out HERE.

As far as today’s Blurb, let’s highlight a few line movers and touch on what’s taking place.

Jets vs. Bills (-15.5, 40.5) – As predicted on Wednesday, this total continues to tick down and we may be at 40 soon. Weather is a factor in this game with sustained winds around 25 mph and gusts into the 30s. It also looks like a bad day to leave Josh Allen out there if the Bills get ahead early. This is such a unique week in that most games on the board are seeing public dog money. That almost never happens. I tend to agree with it here, but I’m not sure about other games.

Panthers vs. Bucs (-9.5, 42) – This line is slowly inching back up. I think a lot of bettors saw Dallas play Dak Prescott into the fourth quarter and are wondering if other teams do the same, like the Bucs, who don’t really have a ton to play for today. They could move up and be the No. 2 seed with a Rams loss, which could be impactful in terms of the Divisional Round. I think this is ultimately more of a fade on the Panthers than a buy on the Bucs, as Tampa is one of the few favorites getting the majority of the bets.

Steelers vs. Ravens (-3, 41) – Am I missing something here? I don’t think the difference between Tyler Huntley and Lamar Jackson is that extreme. The Steelers stink from a statistical perspective. They’re on a short week after Ben-A-Palooza on MNF. Why this line continues to crater is a mystery to me. Now that we’ve hit 3, I think there’s some buyback. I’m guessing it’s because the Steelers have an easier path to the playoffs and this is likely Ben’s last game, but one team is clearly better than the other and it isn’t the one getting steamed.

49ers vs. Rams (-3.5, 45.5) – Sharp money was on San Francisco earlier and public piggybackers are on San Francisco now. The news that Jimmy G is starting has something to do with this number, but bettors don’t trust the Rams and Matt Stafford, even though Stafford is knocking on the door of 5,000 yards and 40 TD passes. I liked SF at 4.5, but as this line ticks down, the Rams may end up being a value bet for some.

Lots of happenings. Lots of trendy public dogs, which are usually red flags, but Week 18 is a different beast.

Good luck today!

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