Saturday’s games may have been a little bit sloppy and may not have as many points combined as Bills vs. Chiefs could end up with, but they certainly had a lot of drama. There wasn’t a whole lot of drama with yesterday’s two prop picks, as both cashed easily, so hopefully the same result will happen today.
The Bucs are -2.5 with extra vig or -3 with reduced vig. Take a 2.5 as opposed to a 3 if you like the Bucs. Take a 3 as opposed to a 2.5 if you like the Rams. The total is 48 almost across the board. In the other game, the Chiefs are down to as low at -1 in the market at some places. The total is painted 54 just about everywhere.
As always, shop around for the best lines on spreads, totals or props. It may or may not be the one that I list here (DraftKings), but do your research and check the different books you have available.
Matthew Stafford Under 37.5 Pass Attempts – This was one that I cashed last week against the Cardinals with ease, but Los Angeles had a big lead throughout the game and was content to run the football. I’m not sure the game state will be the same here, but what I do know is that Sean McVay is running the ball a lot more in general.
Stafford is said to be dealing with various ailments, but he has had 37 or fewer pass attempts in each of his last six games. He hasn’t exceeded 38 since Week 10, which was the final game prior to the bye week. With Stafford’s inconsistencies, I can’t help but wonder if McVay used the bye to really hone in on the running game to see how it could be more effective. Sony Michel had 129 carries over the final six games. He and Cam Akers had high run rates last week relative to snap count. I think McVay wants to play keep away and avoid the backbreaking Stafford pick, so I think we see a heavy dose of the run again.
Cole Beasley Under 28.5 Receiving Yards – I couldn’t find any Isaiah McKenzie props this morning, but if I did, his over receiving yards would be my suggestion. A different way to play this is with Beasley’s under. Beasley has fallen out of favor in a lot of ways. It was a rout, but he only played 17 snaps last week. He’s played under 50 percent of the snaps in three of the last four games.
Beasley only played 39 percent of the snaps in the first KC game, which makes me wonder if he’s not viewed as a good option against this Chiefs defense. That was his lowest snap share of the season, aside from the 45-17 win over the Jets in Week 10 when he got banged up. This is a little tricky because I do think Josh Allen throws a lot. I just don’t think it will be to Beasley.