Burke: NFL player props for Divisional Round Saturday

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 


Enough money has hit the board on the Titans to drive that line up to -4 and the total is also on the rise with a move up to 48 as the second round of the NFL Playoffs gets underway. The Packers are -5.5 market-wide with a total of 47. I’m a little surprised to see the Bengals move up to 4, but the books are a little heavy on the Tennessee side. Now we’ll see if sharp bettors that were waiting on a 4 will pounce.

I’ve already taken my positions for the week, as I wrote about in our NFL picks article. I’ll also talk about today with my man Femi Abebefe on Betting Across America at 12 p.m. ET (Listen Live). Bengals 3.5 and 49ers/Packers Under 47.5. Now, I’ll take a look at some prop bets for Saturday.

Joe Burrow Over 279.5 Passing Yards – A lot of people are downplaying Cincinnati’s performance last week against the Raiders. The reality is that the Raiders do something really well on defense that hurts the Bengals and that is limit big plays. The Titans allowed 300 more yards after catch (YAC) than the Raiders in the regular season. Las Vegas was actually third in the league in yards per reception allowed. Tennessee ranks 23rd.

The Titans have faced the Saints, Texans, Patriots, Jaguars, Steelers, 49ers, Dolphins and Texans over the last eight games. This Bengals offense is a clear upgrade to most of those units. Over Burrow’s last five games, he has a 13/0 TD/INT ratio, has completed almost 75% of his passes and the team averages 12.5 yards per reception. The Titans also generate pressure at a lower rate than the Raiders.

Jimmy Garoppolo Under 30.5 Pass Attempts – The Packers and 49ers are two of the most methodical offenses in the NFL, as my colleague Wes Reynolds pointed out in our NFL best bets article for this week. Jimmy G did play at Eastern Illinois and did play in cold weather there, but he hasn’t in the NFL and hasn’t with stakes this high.

Teams have shown that you can run on the Packers and Kyle Shanahan should plan to do exactly that. The Packers are 30th in yards per carry allowed and 28th in Rush Defense DVOA per Football Outsiders. The Niners are fifth in Rush Offense DVOA. Garoppolo has only exceeded this number five times in 15 games. It is worth noting that three have been over the last five games, but not in single-digit weather with a team you can run against.

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