Burke: Navigating the transition from football to CBB, NBA, and NHL

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

January 4, 2022 10:31 AM

There are 16 NFL regular season games left and then we head into the playoffs. There are two college football games left and tonight’s honestly feels unbettable at this point. Bettors and handicappers that get tunnel vision about football are now going to gravitate towards other sports. Sports where the market is already pretty mature and newcomers are well behind the curve.

My suggestion as we transition away from football to the daily winter sports is that you take some test drives before you buy. Instead of betting full units, try betting half or quarter units. Be a market observer by watching the market up until tip-off and then looking for a live betting scenario as you watch the game. Do a lot of research with KenPom and Torvik for college basketball and whatever sources you want to use for the NBA.

It can be a positive if you come in with no preconceived notions. Even though there are large enough sample sizes to use with the stats, you’re coming in with no perception biases. A fresh set of eyes could actually be a positive, but there are a lot of things that could be a negative entering a market that is already mature and relatively efficient.

Also, there is a tremendous difference between teams playing 2-4 games per week and football with one game per week. There are more situational spots to consider in the daily winter sports. That can be a good starting point while figuring out these teams. Can you fade a team in a back-to-back? Bet on a team that had an uncharacteristically bad shooting performance the game before? For example, Boston was 4-of-42 from 3 last Wednesday against the Clippers and lost by 9. The next game, Boston won as a home underdog against Phoenix. Look for outliers and positive or negative regression.

There is still a lot of time and a lot of games left in all of these seasons, so you have the ability to be patient and wait until you catch up with the rest of the market to make the best bets possible. Get to work on your process and the information you need to know and then you attack the weaknesses you see.

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