Sharp investors thrive in uncertain environments. Volatility in the stock market is a lot like volatility in the sports betting market. It gives those that have a deep understanding of the market the opportunity to make a lot of smart, savvy and promising wagers. Being first to news has been a huge part of the betting process over the last month and a half because of COVID and all of the injuries, but that’s also something that happens in a volatile market and something that the best of the best can navigate.
For most bettors, all of the news has already been baked into the number and a lot of the value from those nuggets has been extracted by the time they place their bets. No matter how often we talk about it (or other betting media outlets), most bettors are not early birds getting the worms. They’re the birds digging around for what’s left after the good stuff has been taken.
I’m not criticizing anybody’s approach. Life and other factors get in the way and prevent a lot of people from truly locking in until the weekend. I totally get that and I’ve been guilty of it on busy weeks before. All it means is that you have to work harder in those moments to be creative and find alternative ways of betting the games.
Take this week as a great example. Most bettors just lock in on full-game lines and fire away. My suggestion? Look at first quarter or first half lines. Sure, you might be paying a little bit of a premium, but we can all agree that the Bills have incentive to jump out early, be aggressive and put the game in cruise control in the second half. Same with the Buccaneers. Same with the Colts.
We may not get a full 60 from these teams, but we sure as hell should get a full 15 or full 30 early on, right? So we hope.
Justin Jefferson is 124 yards away from setting the Vikings single-season record for receiving yards. His prop line is 94.5. He’s going to get a ton of targets and should have the chances to rack up numbers. We’ve also talked a lot about the players with major contract incentives on our VSiN airwaves this week. Marvin Jones needs four catches for an incentive. Chris Jones needs one sack. Haason Reddick needs two. Coaches and teammates know these things. They’ll do what they can to help and the players will obviously be striving for that extra spending money.
You may have lost some line value by not jumping on early-week news or moves, but you can still have a profitable Week 18 if you get creative with your bets this weekend.