I’m working on a conference tournament blurb for the first four that get underway this week (NEC, Patriot, Horizon, A-Sun), so that will be posted shortly. Rather than do that as a blurb so I can go into a little more detail, I figured I’d look at some rematches of note again in this space.
Here are some games of interest today.
Tulane Green Wave at Temple Owls (-2.5, 137) - These two teams just played on Feb. 12 and it was a 92-83 overtime win for the Green Wave. Tulane had 32 free throw attempts with Temple trying to extend the game late, so that widened the gap in OT. What is most interesting to me, though, is that Tulane had 28 shot attempts at the rim to just nine for Temple. The Owls relied on 3s, shooting 39 of them in the game. For a team that ranks 178th in 3P Rate, that is a lot of long-distance shots. Tulane forces teams into a lot of 3s and Temple is shooting 30.1% on them, which ranks 324th. I like Tulane today.
Fairfield Stags at Manhattan Jaspers (PK, 138.5) - The first meeting back on Feb. 16 was a foul fest that fell in favor of the visiting Jaspers by a 74-67 count. Manhattan was 30-of-33 at the free throw line in the winning effort, while Fairfield was 13-of-23. Fairfield got to the rim more frequently, but couldn’t overcome the free throw deficit, as both teams shot pretty comparably in the game. It was not a well-played game, but one where Fairfield probably deserved a better fate. The Stags were -5 at home in the first game with a closing total of 135 that got bet down. This total opened 139 and is starting to drop. I like Fairfield and also the under here based on what I’m seeing and the context clues.
East Tennessee State Buccaneers at UNC Greensboro Spartans (-3.5, 131.5) - This is a pretty big outlier. ETSU and UNCG played to 63 possessions back on Jan. 26 in a game that ended 80-76. The winning Spartans had 1.272 points per possession and the losing Buccaneers had 1.208. That falls in line with ETSU’s performance this season as a good offensive team and a horrific defensive team. The total in the first meeting did get bet up from 125.5 to as high as 129.5. This one opened 130.5 and is on the rise. It leads me to believe smart money doesn’t think that first game was a fluke, so I actually like the over in a low-possession game here as well.