Burke: College basketball rematches for Feb. 17

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

February 17, 2022 11:11 AM
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We’ve got some really interesting rematches for Thursday night across the college basketball landscape. I wrote about how using the first game as a guide for the second game can yield some really good betting angles and maybe these will be ones that fit the bill as well.

San Francisco at Saint Mary’s (-3, 132): These two teams played back on January 27 and San Francisco led by 19 just 30 seconds into the second half. Saint Mary’s won the game by 2. It was an epic collapse from the Dons, a team that has blown several double-digit leads this season. After scoring just 24 points in the first half, the Gaels scored 48 in the second half and took their first lead of the game with 2:26 left. I won’t be on this game, but does the fact that the Dons controlled the majority of the first meeting trigger some interest? You betcha.

Creighton at DePaul (-2.5, 139) – Creighton is a team that I’ve been following closely because they’re underperforming in areas where Greg McDermott teams are typically pretty good. That includes 3P%, where the Bluejays are shooting just 31.4% as a team. In the first meeting against DePaul back on Jan. 22, Creighton was 3-of-17 from 3...and won the game 60-47. It was the best defensive performance of the season in Big East play for the ‘Jays and overshadowed a bad offensive performance. Creighton is a really good defensive team and I feel like the wrong team is favored here.

Montana State (-2, 145) at Eastern Washington – These teams played to a 69-65 final in favor of Montana State back on Jan. 27. In that game, Montana State only went 8-of-28 on 2s, but finished 10-of-27 from 3 and 23-of-30 at the free throw line. Eastern Washington only had nine free throw attempts and made five of them. In that game, Montana State had 14 offensive rebounds to four for the Eagles and the Bobcats had a 53-30 edge in rebounds as a whole.

EWU has been a pretty good defensive rebounding team this season and Montana State has been a better offensive team than that performance. The first game was played to 71 possessions with a closing total of 147.5. There are certainly a lot of oddities from that first box score. I’m not sure it’s worth a play, but 8-of-28 on 2s is usually the type of outlier I look for in a rematch.

James Madison at College of Charleston (-6, 153.5) – We’ve seen some sharp money on the total here and these are the types of indicators I look for in the market. The first meeting ended 95-94 on Jan. 22. Both teams did shoot the ball pretty well, but there were 51 fouls called in the game, leading to 62 free throw attempts and 49 points at the line. The first game had a total of 157.5 after a move up from 152.5. This game opened 155.5 and got bet down. I’m not sure if it stays under or not, but some pretty smart people believe it does and maybe the foul fest and free throw showcase of the first game are the reasons why.

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