I guess we can call it the calm before the storm, but with over 150 college basketball games, a UFC fight card and more of the NBA and NHL, it’s just a different kind of storm on Super Bowl Eve. Before our Billy Walters interview airs and our game day Super Bowl coverage commences, there is quite a bit to handicap.
To narrow down the big Saturday card, I’ve found a few college basketball rematches with some interesting nuggets.
Arizona (-14.5, 150.5) at Washington – Arizona scored 95 points in the first meeting back on Jan. 3 despite 21 turnovers in a game played to 77 possessions. Even with the turnovers, Arizona had 1.233 points per possession by shooting 33-of-60 against the matchup zone. Washington had 1.025 PPP, a pretty good showing for a team in the bottom 50 in 2P% and bottom 100 in 3P%. Interestingly, Arizona closed -24.5 in that game and is only laying 14.5 here. Home court advantage is not a five-point swing both ways, so I’m intrigued by this one, even with the big road number.
Cincinnati (-3, 135) at Tulsa – This is one of those games that illustrates why looking at the first game is so important. Tulsa has taken the majority of the bets and the money for this one, even though the Bearcats won the first game 90-69 back on Jan. 20. Cincinnati was 16-of-29 from 3 in that game, while Tulsa was 3-of-14. A 39-point different from beyond the arc will definitely create a blowout.
The 90 points were a season high for Cincinnati and the game was played to 80 possessions, also a season high for the Bearcats. So, we have a blowout in a recent meeting, a Tulsa team that is 1-10 SU in AAC play and a line move on the Golden Hurricane? Hmmm.
UT Arlington at Louisiana (-5, 135) – UT Arlington is a terrible offensive team, but the Mavericks had a season-high 1.246 PPP against a Division I opponent back on Jan. 13 against the Ragin’ Cajuns in an 83-73 win. That line closed Louisiana -2 on the road. Now, the Cajuns are only laying 5 at home with an outlier in the first game for UTA. Arlington was 28-of-39 on 2s, not bad for a team shooting just 46.8% on those for the season. Both teams are scuffling, but Louisiana makes some sense as the side here.