This is an important week for my own ratings and projections in Point Spread Weekly. With all NFL teams having played three games and most college teams having played three or four, this is when I turn the page to using data exclusively from this season. Over the last few weeks, the numbers I have presented have been a series of adjustments based on how teams have played this season as compared with last. Even so, the results have been pretty sound.
What does this mean for readers of PSW? Well, you should notice some significant changes in the strength ratings charts for both college and pro football. That is besides the addition of full FCS ratings to the college chart. For instance, you will notice that Georgia has made a big leap all the way to the top in Effective Strength Ratings. You will notice a similar jump for the Rams in the NFL. For the rest of the season, you can assume all the data is based on results from the 2021 season.
With that in mind, this is always a great time of the year to point out the significant changes we have seen in teams from last season to this season. I will be doing that here. The lesson: It’s fully time to flip the page and forget about anything you saw in 2020. This list of changes should give you a better snapshot of which teams least resemble their predecessors.
College Football Ratings and Effective Stat Changes
Biggest Power Ratings improvement
1. Utah State: + 13.5
2. Bowling Green: + 12.5
3. Fresno State: + 11.5
T-4. Michigan State: + 10
T-4. Arkansas: + 10
Biggest Power Ratings decline
1. Clemson: -15.5
2. Northwestern: -14.5
3. Indiana: -11
4. BYU: -10.5
5. Buffalo/Georgia Southern/Ohio U.: -9
Best Effective Offensive Scoring improvement
1. Western Kentucky: + 21.6 ppg
2. Utah State: + 21.3 ppg
3. Pittsburgh: + 20.2 ppg
4. Georgia: + 17 ppg
5. Bowling Green: + 16.8 ppg
Worst Effective Offensive Scoring decline
1. Clemson: -19.3 ppg
2. San Jose State: -11 ppg
T-3. BYU: -7.6 ppg
T-3. Washington: -7.6 ppg
5. Georgia State: -7.4 ppg
Best Effective Defensive Scoring improvement
1. Michigan: -25.4 ppg
2. Ole Miss: -24.8 ppg
3. Bowling Green: -24.4 ppg
4. North Texas: -21.7 ppg
5. Purdue: -20.9 ppg
Worst Effective Defensive Scoring decline
1. Rice: + 12.9 ppg
2. Northwestern: + 8.4 ppg
3. Ohio U.: + 6.4 ppg
4. Notre Dame: + 6.1 ppg
5. Indiana: + 5.9 ppg
Biggest Offensive Pace pickup (plays per minute TOP)
1. Marshall: + 0.90 ppm
2. Tennessee: + 0.65 ppm
3. Utah State: + 0.62 ppm
4. Western Kentucky: + 0.53 ppm
5. Georgia Southern: + 0.50 ppm
Biggest Offensive Pace slowdown (plays per minute TOP)
1. UCF: -0.59 ppm
2. Temple: -0.48 ppm
T-3. Texas Tech: -0.44 ppm
T-3. Michigan: -0.44 ppm
5. Arkansas: -0.43 ppm
Best Effective Time of Possession improvement
1. Rutgers: + 6.2 min
2. Michigan: + 6.0 min
3. Arkansas: + 5.9 min
4. NC State: + 5.7 min
5. Western Michigan: + 5.6 min
Worst Effective Time of Possession decline
1. Ohio State: -7.0 min
2. Marshall: -6.1 min
3. Utah: -5.9 min
4. Toledo: -5.1 min
5. Florida State: -4.8 min
Best Effective Offensive Yards Per Play improvement
1. Western Kentucky: + 4.37 ypp
2. Utah State: + 2.95 ypp
3. California: + 2.66 ypp
4. Michigan State: + 2.50 ypp
5. Baylor: + 2.47 ypp
Worst Effective Offensive Yards Per Play decline
1. Virginia Tech: -1.67 ypp
2. Clemson: -1.53 ypp
3. Buffalo: -1.40 ypp
4. Louisiana-Monroe: -1.37 ypp
5. Colorado: -1.15 ypp
Best Effective Defensive Yards Per Play improvement
1. Bowling Green: -2.81 ypp
T-2. LSU: -2.17 ypp
T-2. Kent State: -2.17 ypp
4. Fresno State: -2.05 ypp
5. Temple: -2.00 ypp
Worst Effective Defensive Yards Per Play decline
1. TCU: + 1.43 ypp
2. Northwestern: + 1.07 ypp
3. South Florida: + 0.93 ypp
4. Georgia Southern: + 0.85 ypp
5. Louisiana: + 0.74 ypp
Best Effective Yards Per Play Differential improvement
1. Western Kentucky: + 4.43 ypp
2. Utah State: + 3.85 ypp
3. Fresno State: + 3.43 ypp
4. Baylor: + 2.83 ypp
5. Michigan State: + 2.81 ypp
Worst Effective Yards Per Play Differential decline
1. Buffalo: -0.99 ypp
2. BYU: -0.98 ypp
3. Georgia Southern: -0.86 ypp
4. Colorado: -0.85 ypp
5. South Florida: -0.74 ypp
Biggest Effective Closing Total jump (Bettors’ Rating for totals)
1. Western Kentucky: + 13.5 pts
2. Marshall: + 11.0 pts
3. Pittsburgh: + 10.2 pts
4. Utah State: + 9.8 pts
5. California: + 9.7 pts
Biggest Effective Closing Total decline (Bettors’ Rating for totals)
1. North Texas: -15.5 pts
2. Clemson: -12.0 pts
T-3. Florida: -9.0 pts
T-3. Alabama: -9.0 pts
5. Arizona: -8.1 pts
Pro Football Ratings and Effective Stat Changes
Biggest Power Ratings improvement
1. Denver: + 8.0
2. Dallas: + 5.5
T-3. L.A. Rams: + 4.5
T-3. Cincinnati: + 4.5
5. L.A. Chargers: + 3.5
Biggest Power Ratings decline
1. Indianapolis: -6.0
2. Kansas City: -4.5
T-3. Baltimore: -4.0
T-3. Chicago: -4.0
T-3. Green Bay: -4.0
Best Effective Offensive Scoring improvement
1. L.A. Rams: + 5.6 ppg
2. Arizona: + 4.8 ppg
T-3. Dallas: + 4.6 ppg
T-3. Denver: + 4.6 ppg
5. Cincinnati: + 3.8 ppg
Worst Effective Offensive Scoring decline
1. Atlanta: -9.1 ppg
2. Green Bay: -9.0 ppg
3. Pittsburgh: -8.8 ppg
4. Indianapolis: -8.5 ppg
5. Miami: -8.0 ppg
Best Effective Defensive Scoring improvement
1. Denver: -11.8 ppg
2. Dallas: -11.7 ppg
3. L.A. Chargers: -11.6 ppg
4. Philadelphia: -7.9 ppg
5. Carolina: -7.5 ppg
Worst Effective Defensive Scoring decline
1. Washington: + 10.5 ppg
2. Kansas City: + 7.3 ppg
3. Atlanta: + 5.3 ppg
4. Baltimore: + 4.7 ppg
5. Miami: + 4.6 ppg
Biggest Offensive Pace pickup (plays per minute TOP)
1. Jacksonville: + 0.31 ppm
T-2. Buffalo: + 0.22 ppm
T-2. Miami: + 0.22 ppm
4. Tampa Bay: + 0.15 ppm
5. Seattle: + 0.07 ppm
Biggest Offensive Pace slowdown (plays per minute TOP)
1. Denver: -0.42 ppm
2. Arizona: -0.37 ppm
3. Dallas: -0.31 ppm
4. Chicago: -0.28 ppm
5. Cleveland: -0.25 ppm
Best Effective Time of Possession improvement
1. N.Y. Jets: + 4.9 min
2. Tennessee: + 4.8 min
3. Denver: + 4.7 min
T-4. Dallas: + 3.3 min
T-4. Detroit: + 3.3 min
Worst Effective Time of Possession decline
1. Seattle: -5.1 min
2. L.A. Rams: -4.1 min
3. Washington: -2.7 min
4. Atlanta: -2.3 min
5. Cincinnati: -2.1 min
Best Effective Offensive Yards Per Play improvement
1. Seattle: + 1.91 ypp
2. Philadelphia: + 1.37 ypp
3. L.A. Rams: + 1.16 ypp
4. Arizona: + 1.08 ypp
5. Baltimore: + 0.95 ypp
Worst Effective Offensive Yards Per Play decline
1. Houston: -1.46 ypp
2. Chicago: -1.45 ypp
3. New Orleans: -1.21 ypp
4. Miami: -1.08 ypp
5. Buffalo: -0.98 ypp
Best Effective Defensive Yards Per Play improvement
1. Cincinnati: -1.47 ypp
2. Carolina: -1.28 ypp
3. Denver: -1.15 ypp
4. Buffalo: -1.01 ypp
5. Philadelphia: -0.97 ypp
Worst Effective Defensive Yards Per Play decline
1. Kansas City: + 1.20 ypp
2. Baltimore: + 1.09 ypp
3. Minnesota: + 0.93 ypp
4. L.A. Rams: + 0.82 ypp
5. Washington: + 0.77 ypp
Best Effective Yards Per Play Differential improvement
1. Philadelphia: + 2.34 ypp
2. Cincinnati: + 1.95 ypp
3. Seattle: + 1.65 ypp
4. Cleveland: + 1.55 ypp
5. Denver: + 1.4 ypp
Worst Effective Yards Per Play Differential decline
1. Chicago: -1.78 ypp
2. Houston: -1.22 ypp
3. Indianapolis: -1.16 ypp
4. San Francisco: -0.97 ypp
5. Minnesota: -0.96 ypp
Biggest Effective Closing Total jump (Bettors’ Rating for totals)
1. L.A. Rams: + 4.8 pts
2. N.Y. Giants: + 3.0 pts
3. Seattle: + 2.7 pts
4. Baltimore: + 2.2 pts
5. Tampa Bay: + 1.8 pts
Biggest Effective Closing Total decline (Bettors’ Rating for totals)
T-1. Chicago: -3.6 pts
T-1. Indianapolis: -3.6 pts
3. Houston: -3.4 pts
4. Detroit: -3.3 pts
5. Carolina: -3.2 pts