Biggest CFB, NFL ratings changes

makinennfl

This is an important week for my own ratings and projections in Point Spread Weekly. With all NFL teams having played three games and most college teams having played three or four, this is when I turn the page to using data exclusively from this season. Over the last few weeks, the numbers I have presented have been a series of adjustments based on how teams have played this season as compared with last. Even so, the results have been pretty sound.

What does this mean for readers of PSW? Well, you should notice some significant changes in the strength ratings charts for both college and pro football. That is besides the addition of full FCS ratings to the college chart. For instance, you will notice that Georgia has made a big leap all the way to the top in Effective Strength Ratings. You will notice a similar jump for the Rams in the NFL. For the rest of the season, you can assume all the data is based on results from the 2021 season.

With that in mind, this is always a great time of the year to point out the significant changes we have seen in teams from last season to this season. I will be doing that here. The lesson: It’s fully time to flip the page and forget about anything you saw in 2020. This list of changes should give you a better snapshot of which teams least resemble their predecessors.

College Football Ratings and Effective Stat Changes

Biggest Power Ratings improvement

1. Utah State: + 13.5

2. Bowling Green: + 12.5

3. Fresno State: + 11.5

T-4. Michigan State: + 10

T-4. Arkansas: + 10

Biggest Power Ratings decline

1. Clemson: -15.5

2. Northwestern: -14.5

3. Indiana: -11

4. BYU: -10.5

5. Buffalo/Georgia Southern/Ohio U.: -9

Best Effective Offensive Scoring improvement

1. Western Kentucky: + 21.6 ppg

2. Utah State: + 21.3 ppg

3. Pittsburgh: + 20.2 ppg

4. Georgia: + 17 ppg

5. Bowling Green: + 16.8 ppg

Worst Effective Offensive Scoring decline

1. Clemson: -19.3 ppg

2. San Jose State: -11 ppg

T-3. BYU: -7.6 ppg

T-3. Washington: -7.6 ppg

5. Georgia State: -7.4 ppg

Best Effective Defensive Scoring improvement

1. Michigan: -25.4 ppg

2. Ole Miss: -24.8 ppg

3. Bowling Green: -24.4 ppg

4. North Texas: -21.7 ppg

5. Purdue: -20.9 ppg

Worst Effective Defensive Scoring decline

1. Rice: + 12.9 ppg

2. Northwestern: + 8.4 ppg

3. Ohio U.: + 6.4 ppg

4. Notre Dame: + 6.1 ppg

5. Indiana: + 5.9 ppg

Biggest Offensive Pace pickup (plays per minute TOP)

1. Marshall: + 0.90 ppm

2. Tennessee: + 0.65 ppm

3. Utah State: + 0.62 ppm

4. Western Kentucky: + 0.53 ppm

5. Georgia Southern: + 0.50 ppm

Biggest Offensive Pace slowdown (plays per minute TOP)

1. UCF: -0.59 ppm

2. Temple: -0.48 ppm

T-3. Texas Tech: -0.44 ppm

T-3. Michigan: -0.44 ppm

5. Arkansas: -0.43 ppm

Best Effective Time of Possession improvement

1. Rutgers: + 6.2 min

2. Michigan: + 6.0 min

3. Arkansas: + 5.9 min

4. NC State: + 5.7 min

5. Western Michigan: + 5.6 min

Worst Effective Time of Possession decline

1. Ohio State: -7.0 min

2. Marshall: -6.1 min

3. Utah: -5.9 min

4. Toledo: -5.1 min

5. Florida State: -4.8 min

Best Effective Offensive Yards Per Play improvement

1. Western Kentucky: + 4.37 ypp

2. Utah State: + 2.95 ypp

3. California: + 2.66 ypp

4. Michigan State: + 2.50 ypp

5. Baylor: + 2.47 ypp

Worst Effective Offensive Yards Per Play decline

1. Virginia Tech: -1.67 ypp

2. Clemson: -1.53 ypp

3. Buffalo: -1.40 ypp

4. Louisiana-Monroe: -1.37 ypp

5. Colorado: -1.15 ypp

Best Effective Defensive Yards Per Play improvement

1. Bowling Green: -2.81 ypp

T-2. LSU: -2.17 ypp

T-2. Kent State: -2.17 ypp

4. Fresno State: -2.05 ypp

5. Temple: -2.00 ypp

Worst Effective Defensive Yards Per Play decline

1. TCU: + 1.43 ypp

2. Northwestern: + 1.07 ypp

3. South Florida: + 0.93 ypp

4. Georgia Southern: + 0.85 ypp

5. Louisiana: + 0.74 ypp

Best Effective Yards Per Play Differential improvement

1. Western Kentucky: + 4.43 ypp

2. Utah State: + 3.85 ypp

3. Fresno State: + 3.43 ypp

4. Baylor: + 2.83 ypp

5. Michigan State: + 2.81 ypp

Worst Effective Yards Per Play Differential decline

1. Buffalo: -0.99 ypp

2. BYU: -0.98 ypp

3. Georgia Southern: -0.86 ypp

4. Colorado: -0.85 ypp

5. South Florida: -0.74 ypp

Biggest Effective Closing Total jump (Bettors’ Rating for totals)

1. Western Kentucky: + 13.5 pts

2. Marshall: + 11.0 pts

3. Pittsburgh: + 10.2 pts

4. Utah State: + 9.8 pts

5. California: + 9.7 pts

Biggest Effective Closing Total decline (Bettors’ Rating for totals)

1. North Texas: -15.5 pts

2. Clemson: -12.0 pts

T-3. Florida: -9.0 pts

T-3. Alabama: -9.0 pts

5. Arizona: -8.1 pts

Pro Football Ratings and Effective Stat Changes

Biggest Power Ratings improvement

1. Denver: + 8.0

2. Dallas: + 5.5

T-3. L.A. Rams: + 4.5

T-3. Cincinnati: + 4.5

5. L.A. Chargers: + 3.5

Biggest Power Ratings decline

1. Indianapolis: -6.0

2. Kansas City: -4.5

T-3. Baltimore: -4.0

T-3. Chicago: -4.0

T-3. Green Bay: -4.0

Best Effective Offensive Scoring improvement

1. L.A. Rams: + 5.6 ppg

2. Arizona: + 4.8 ppg

T-3. Dallas: + 4.6 ppg

T-3. Denver: + 4.6 ppg

5. Cincinnati: + 3.8 ppg

Worst Effective Offensive Scoring decline

1. Atlanta: -9.1 ppg

2. Green Bay: -9.0 ppg

3. Pittsburgh: -8.8 ppg

4. Indianapolis: -8.5 ppg

5. Miami: -8.0 ppg

Best Effective Defensive Scoring improvement

1. Denver: -11.8 ppg

2. Dallas: -11.7 ppg

3. L.A. Chargers: -11.6 ppg

4. Philadelphia: -7.9 ppg

5. Carolina: -7.5 ppg

Worst Effective Defensive Scoring decline

1. Washington: + 10.5 ppg

2. Kansas City: + 7.3 ppg

3. Atlanta: + 5.3 ppg

4. Baltimore: + 4.7 ppg

5. Miami: + 4.6 ppg

Biggest Offensive Pace pickup (plays per minute TOP)

1. Jacksonville: + 0.31 ppm

T-2. Buffalo: + 0.22 ppm

T-2. Miami: + 0.22 ppm

4. Tampa Bay: + 0.15 ppm

5. Seattle: + 0.07 ppm

Biggest Offensive Pace slowdown (plays per minute TOP)

1. Denver: -0.42 ppm

2. Arizona: -0.37 ppm

3. Dallas: -0.31 ppm

4. Chicago: -0.28 ppm

5. Cleveland: -0.25 ppm

Best Effective Time of Possession improvement

1. N.Y. Jets: + 4.9 min

2. Tennessee: + 4.8 min

3. Denver: + 4.7 min

T-4. Dallas: + 3.3 min

T-4. Detroit: + 3.3 min

Worst Effective Time of Possession decline

1. Seattle: -5.1 min

2. L.A. Rams: -4.1 min

3. Washington: -2.7 min

4. Atlanta: -2.3 min

5. Cincinnati: -2.1 min

Best Effective Offensive Yards Per Play improvement

1. Seattle: + 1.91 ypp

2. Philadelphia: + 1.37 ypp

3. L.A. Rams: + 1.16 ypp

4. Arizona: + 1.08 ypp

5. Baltimore: + 0.95 ypp

Worst Effective Offensive Yards Per Play decline

1. Houston: -1.46 ypp

2. Chicago: -1.45 ypp

3. New Orleans: -1.21 ypp

4. Miami: -1.08 ypp

5. Buffalo: -0.98 ypp

Best Effective Defensive Yards Per Play improvement

1. Cincinnati: -1.47 ypp

2. Carolina: -1.28 ypp

3. Denver: -1.15 ypp

4. Buffalo: -1.01 ypp

5. Philadelphia: -0.97 ypp

Worst Effective Defensive Yards Per Play decline

1. Kansas City: + 1.20 ypp

2. Baltimore: + 1.09 ypp

3. Minnesota: + 0.93 ypp

4. L.A. Rams: + 0.82 ypp

5. Washington: + 0.77 ypp

Best Effective Yards Per Play Differential improvement

1. Philadelphia: + 2.34 ypp

2. Cincinnati: + 1.95 ypp

3. Seattle: + 1.65 ypp

4. Cleveland: + 1.55 ypp

5. Denver: + 1.4 ypp

Worst Effective Yards Per Play Differential decline

1. Chicago: -1.78 ypp

2. Houston: -1.22 ypp

3. Indianapolis: -1.16 ypp

4. San Francisco: -0.97 ypp

5. Minnesota: -0.96 ypp

Biggest Effective Closing Total jump (Bettors’ Rating for totals)

1. L.A. Rams: + 4.8 pts

2. N.Y. Giants: + 3.0 pts

3. Seattle: + 2.7 pts

4. Baltimore: + 2.2 pts

5. Tampa Bay: + 1.8 pts

Biggest Effective Closing Total decline (Bettors’ Rating for totals)

T-1. Chicago: -3.6 pts

T-1. Indianapolis: -3.6 pts

3. Houston: -3.4 pts

4. Detroit: -3.3 pts

5. Carolina: -3.2 pts

back to news

Related News

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

The Lombardi Line: Bookmakers love parleys, when playing them, you want a mix of favorites and underdogs.

Pro Football Blitz: When you back teams on the raod you want a good running team, when you back teams at home you want a good passing team. With teams on the road usually the underdog, you want a team that can control time of possession like the Tennessee Titans.

 

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Shaun King: Eagles -6.5 vs Jaguars

Brendan Gaughan: Brad Keselowski Top 3 +600

View new sortable Picks at a Glance page for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Screen_Shot_2022-09-30_at_6.23.35_PM

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

Close