Bettors should expect full 60-minute effort from Lightning In Game 2

September 20, 2020 10:54 PM

Heading into Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final, the Tampa Bay Lightning are carrying a price tag of -150 while the Dallas Stars come in as plus-130 underdogs. Of course, the price does vary from book to book and bettors would be wise to shop around for the best price. With that being said, there are other markets that a bettor can look to exploit.

Now that bookmakers only have one series to focus on, player props will hit the screen faster than they typically would. For example, bettors usually won’t see shots on goal propositions until around noon on game day. However, since Stanley Cup Final games are only being played every other day, bettors can now bet into these markets overnight. 

Over at DraftKings, there is one player prop in particular that I believe offers value, and that is Victor Hedman Over 2.5 Shots On Goal. The Lightning defensemen generated over three shots per game and should be relied on heavily in Game 2. Expect the Bolts to come out firing, and regardless of the score, don’t expect it to stop. Unlike the first game, the Lightning will have their legs under them. 

The Stars, on the other hand, will have to do their best to weather the storm. This will involve relying on Anton Khudobin and one of the ways that the Stars will likely try to help their goaltender out is by forcing the Lightning to play the perimeter. The Stars did this against the Vegas Golden Knights, and it resulted in a large portion of the shots coming from defensemen near the blue line. 

Hedman should generate more than 2.5 shots about 59 percent of the time. Therefore, betting over 2.5 at -118 is a value play because the odds, by my estimation, should be closer to -145.

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