Betting value on Mets, Yankees heading in opposite directions

July 28, 2019 10:35 PM

Not long ago, we wrote about potential “reversals of fortune” in betting market terms for the Mets and Yankees. Since the All-Star break, that’s exactly what’s happened for the Mets, with the Yankees slowing way down into neutral. 

For the previously struggling Mets…

  • Won 0.9 units in the opening series at Miami. Of course, beating Miami isn’t a Herculean task, but it was a good start.
  • Won three units in just two games as underdogs of plus 140 and plus 160 at American League power Minnesota. Those surprises brought the record to 4-1 with a total profit of 3.9 units.
  • Lost 2.3 units on the road at red-hot San Francisco. A very competitive series because all three losses were by one run. Still on the right side of break even straight up and against the money line to this point. 
  • Won 0.5 units at Citi Field against visiting San Diego. The Mets won two of three, but were -150 favorites in the loss. That brought the recent record to 7-5 straight up with a profit of 2.1 units. 
  • Won three units in a swift sweep of plummeting Pittsburgh. 

Heading into Tuesday night’s series opener on the road against the Chicago White Sox, the Mets post-ASB record is 10-5 for a profit of 5.1 betting units. They took advantage of a much softer schedule, and resolved their bullpen issues (temporarily at least) to become a much better investment. 

After winning 16 of their last 20 before the break, the Yanks couldn’t surpass inflated expectations:

  • Lost 0.6 units in Toronto despite going 2-1 straight up because the Bronx Bombers were pricey -260 favorites in their defeat. 
  • Won 1.5 units while taking advantage of Tampa Bay’s tailspin with three victories in four games. Yanks were -150 in the loss. 
  • Broke dead even at home against Colorado, with a loss as a -200 favorite canceling out two victories. To this point, a 7-3 record had yielded a slight profit. 
  • Won 0.9 units in Minnesota, taking two of three at affordable prices. Though the pitching staff had mysteriously collapsed, the Yanks were still winning games. 
  • Lost 1.85 units in Boston dropping three of four. Sunday night’s win over Chris Sale at plus 150 helped avert a disastrous weekend. 

Heading into Tuesday night’s series opener at the Stadium vs. Arizona, the Yankees are 10-7, but virtually dead even in units because of all the losses as favorites. 

What’s the immediate prognosis moving forward? 

With the Mets, it depends on personnel changes, and the overall team attitude after the dust has settled. A hot run was nice to see. The team could still flip and become “the next Pittsburgh” (2-14 since the break) if the mood shifts.

The Yankees are unlikely to offer betting value because they’ll still be priced like champions. They’ll have to play well to break even. Any stumbles, and meaningful profit won’t even be possible. 

 

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